Kevin Stefanski straightened out Baker Mayfield's game. But a contract extension, strangely, could hinge on something other than his performance on the field. (DraftKings Nation)
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Editor’s note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
At a time of unprecedented tumult among NFL quarterbacks, the Browns sit in a rare state of tranquility at the game’s most important position.
It’s as if they’ve been rewarded for more than 20 years of missed opportunities, miscalculations and quarterback misfeasance.
The Rams gave up on Jared Goff, QB1 of the 2016 draft, 24 months after he appeared in the Super Bowl in his third NFL season and 17 months after rewarding him with a $134 million contract.
The Eagles gave up on Carson Wentz, QB2 of the 2016 draft, 36 months after he helped the Eagles to the Super Bowl in his second season and 20 months after rewarding him with a $128 million contract.
The Texans are in a high-stakes stand-off with Deshaun Watson, QB3 of the 2017 draft, who wants out of their dysfunction and won’t even return their calls.
The 49ers are contemplating a change from Jimmy Garoppolo two years after he led them to 15 wins and a 20-10 lead in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl against Patrick Mahomes.
The Jets are considering turning the page on Sam Darnold, QB2 of the 2018 draft.
The Steelers are debating whether Ben Roethlisberger should play for the NFL minimum or – to quote Chuck Noll from another era – “go on with his life’s work.”
The Patriots don’t even have a quarterback. Repeat: The Patriots don’t even have a quarterback.
The Browns? They’ve died and gone to heaven.
Not only have they rehabilitated Baker Mayfield, QB1 of the 2018 draft, into a bona fide elite signal-caller, they’ve turned around their franchise fortunes and sit poised for a serious run at their first Super Bowl.
Now comes the kicker: when to pull the trigger on a Goff- and Wentz-like contract extension for Mayfield?
A different metric
How many touchdowns does it take for a quarterback to earn a second contract? How many yards-per-attempt? How large must be his QBR? How many wins on the road against above-.500 teams? How many wins over the Steelers?
I checked in with a veteran of several decades of negotiating big-time NFL contracts. He believes none of the fancy algorithms available to NFL analytics study mean a hill of beans when evaluating a megamillion-dollar contract for a quarterback, or a player at other positions.
“My personal metric is: will the money change this guy? Period. That’s all I want to know,” said the industry source. “I don’t even care with the football part. We can help him with that part.
“That assessment I can make off tape, talking to coaches, talking to players. You can help that part. You can get better players around him. You can’t really help if the dude’s got a shaky value system.”
The source was not speaking directly about Mayfield but about any player in line for a life-altering contract.
How does life-altering money alter the player’s work ethic? Will he feel he’s arrived and stop putting in the effort to improve? Will the edge be taken off his will to win? Does guaranteed money guarantee a drop-off in commitment?
The best players never stop learning, improving, finding an edge. Tom Brady is always inventing ways to get better and creating perceived slights to push him further. Money never was his motivator.
That gigantic boulder on Mayfield’s shoulder that has driven him this far -- from two-time college walk-on to Heisman Trophy winner, No. 1 overall draft pick, and now conqueror of the Steelers -- doesn’t figure to be knocked off anytime soon. It’s the reason teammates follow him. It’s the reason former GM John Dorsey was attracted to him.
Maybe that chip slipped off in Mayfield’s second season. Maybe after that early success as a rookie, the empowerment he was given by the organization in his second season, the flood of endorsements, maybe they did change him. And maybe he was lucky to learn a valuable lesson, and he re-found his way when it looked like everything he’d worked for might slip away.
Putting that chip back on his shoulder might have been just as important as finding coaches who improved his game. Keeping it there could be the key to Mayfield’s future success through a second big contract.
“All I’m saying is that position in professional sports, an NFL quarterback … look at the entire organization as a sailboat. I want a sturdy mast,” said the insider source.
Accountability
As for the proliferation of teams giving up so early on young quarterbacks, the source believes it is the result of a lack of accountability.
“The decision-makers [aka, the GMs] are all operating under guaranteed contracts. Meaning, if they mess it up, their compensation is not affected,” said the source. “And they’re spending someone else’s money. They’re not spending their own money.”
Billionaire owners not only give GMs great latitude, they give them tons of money to throw around. There’s so much money nowadays in the NFL game that when a GM’s bad decision blows up, the billionaire owner just sucks up the loss and lets the GM try again. The GM is paid. The coach will be paid. The quarterback will be paid by another team. The fans are the ones who suffer the inevitable setback in team growth.
“My point is there’s not really that much at risk for the decision-makers, which is dangerous for the fans. Their margin of error for themselves personally is so vast. Just look at the Eagles. [GM] Howie Roseman’s missed on the head coach [Doug Pederson] and the quarterback [Wentz], and he’s still employed. Eagles fans are suffering from his decisions.”
Imagine a system in which a GM’s contract was not guaranteed. Or if his pay was reduced, say, 50 percent for decisions that resulted in $30 million in dead cap money and a change of coach or quarterback.
“The decision-making would be a lot different, trust me,” said the source.