Why I think the Browns will go 6-10

Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.

Let me start by stating I think the Browns are on the right track.

I think Andrew Berry is a rock star GM.

I think Kevin Stefanski is the right modern coach to embrace collaboration, inclusion and analytics and align perfectly with Paul DePodesta’s vision of a football operations department.

I think the Stefanski offense, if it winds up looking like the Kyle Shanahan offense of 2014, is the tonic to get the best out of Baker Mayfield, and is the right system to restore toughness on offense to fight with the big dogs in the AFC North.

(We know they’ve got it in themselves because the wins against Baltimore and Pittsburgh last year were the most physical beat-downs they have administered on their most bitter rivals in recent memory.)

I don’t know about the defense as a whole, but I think Myles Garrett is motivated to have a big year because deep down he knows his loss of control in the first Pittsburgh game begat the team’s stunning downfall in 2019.

I think if Jimmy Haslam can just leave these guys alone and let them do their jobs, the Browns are headed for the playoffs.

Just not this year.

Reality v. fantasy

Reality is the future looks bright for the Browns.

Fantasy is that everything comes together this year.

Reality is the roster, when healthy, is loaded.

Fantasy is that the team can escape the usual dose of injuries, already started in training camp, that typically derail their season.

Reality is that the Browns made strides on their division rivals last year, winning their first three meetings.

Fantasy is that the Bengals will be pushovers forever. Two easy division wins, they're not.

My prediction

I see the Browns going 6-10.

There was a time I felt that 8-8 with a push toward the new No. 7 AFC playoff berth was reachable.

After the pandemic hit, claiming OTAs and minicamps and joint practices with the Packers and four preseason games, I felt the precious lost practice time on the field was too much for this new operation to overcome.

For two weeks of practices, which were thrown out of rhythm by false positive Covid-19 tests, key injuries, and other circumstances out of Stefanski’s control, the Browns looked like a 5-11 team to me. High throws, tipped passes, too many interceptions. If they happen on the practice field, what makes you think they'll disappear in real games?

But I thought camp finished on an upward trend and that raised my final win total to six.

You may say, “If they can go 6-10 with Freddie Kitchens as coach, then surely they can do a lot better with Stefanski.” I would agree if this were a normal year, but it’s not. The obstacles stacked in front of Stefanski are real.

Specifically:

1.The loss of all that time to practice new offensive and defensive systems can’t be overstated.

Stefanski’s mantra when he took the job was “Let’s go to work.” He has repeatedly praised his players for doing everything they’ve been asked. The problem is they haven’t been asked to do as much because of the nuances of this pandemic season.

I can’t recall the offense not running a full speed – full speed -- two-minute drive prior to the start of a season before now.

The first time the Browns worked a live tackling drill on a matt stretched on the grass, Greedy Williams hurt his shoulder and still hasn’t been back to practice.

Football is blocking and tackling, not a Madden video game.

2.Too many injuries to key players retarded team growth.

Veteran center JC Tretter returned to practice for the first time on Monday after having arthroscopic knee surgery on Aug. 13. If Tretter plays on Sunday in the opener, much less plays at his high standard, he deserves the Nobel Prize.

In Tretter’s place, rookie fifth-round pick Nick Harris took all the No. 1 snaps at center. If Tretter does make it back, it means Harris spent the whole training camp without practicing at guard, which was the original plan. Yes, a backup guard is not going to swing the season one way or another. It’s just that everything had to go right for Stefanski et al. to make up ground.

Mack Wilson was going to be the leader of a young, unproven corps of linebackers. He was lost with a hyperextended knee. Fortunately, surgery was not needed to repair the gruesome injury. But Wilson lost valuable time on the field, which he absolutely needed to take a step forward in his second season.

Grant Delpit was going to be an important piece in coordinator Joe Woods’ dime scheme. But the rookie safety was lost for the season when his Achilles tendon ruptured while backpedaling in a routine DB drill. Berry rebounded nicely by trading for Jacksonville’s Ronnie Harrison, but Harrison doesn’t have Delpit’s skill-set. He appears to be a longer-term answer at strong safety.

Other injuries that are affecting the first month of the season were suffered by Williams (shoulder), top nickel back Kevin Johnson (lacerated liver) and No. 2 nickel back M.J. Stewart (hamstring). Stewart was back on the field on Monday, as captured in the team's daily photo release.

3.Over-reliance on rookie Jedrick Wills making a clean transition from right tackle to left tackle.

Wills was probably the biggest victim of the loss of practice time due to the pandemic. It was a tough enough challenge for Wills and offensive line coach Bill Callahan to get him up to speed in a normal year. Now, Wills’ development has been understandably choppy. He should be fine in the long run. The short run could be scary.

I have concerns about the Mayfield-Odell Beckham Jr.-Jarvis Landry dynamic.

It would seem most prudent for Stefanski to pound the ball on the ground and use Mayfield’s safe roll-out throws to the tight ends for offensive efficiency, given the lack of practice time.

That method of offense would help Wills settle in, would refine Mayfield’s wayward throwing accuracy, and would maximize the magnificent one-two punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

But how is that conservative offense going to play in the minds of Beckham and Landry?

There’s a lot on Stefanski’s plate as he steps into the boiling cauldron of Browns football.

His first season should be judged on the last eight games of the season, not the first eight. If he can win four of the last eight, we’ll know the Browns are on the right track.