The Browns 'fully expect' Baker Mayfield to return healthy as their starting quarterback in 2022. But they have to consider other options.
Baker Mayfield is the odds-on favorite to return as Browns starting QB, but other options exist
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
What are the odds of Baker Mayfield returning as the Browns’ starting quarterback in the 2022 season?
Pretty good. In fact, Baker is an overwhelming odds-on favorite to retain the job in his fifth season after surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder.
But that doesn’t mean the Browns won’t consider options to improve the position.
With a roster ready to win, GM Andrew Berry is tasked with determining if Mayfield can compete with the likes of high-powered AFC quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert, or whether the team has to get better at quarterback.
The options below all come at a risk and in some cases a high cost … but they have to be considered.
And so we present our first Browns Quarterback Sports Book – the opening odds on who will be the Browns starting QB in 2022.
1. Baker Mayfield. Odds: Plus-150 ($100 bet returns $150)
The official company line heading into the offseason was articulated by Berry. “We fully expect Baker to be our starter and bounce back,” Berry said on Jan. 11. “Generally speaking, we are looking forward to Baker obviously getting healthy in the offseason and then putting good work into the spring and with his coaches for having the type of season we know he can have moving forward.” Mayfield is guaranteed $18.88 million for 2022 after the Browns picked up his fifth-year option in May. Without a contract extension from the Browns, the team may follow the lead of Tampa Bay and Tennessee, who let Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, respectively, leave after the 2019 season. Tennessee prepared for Mariota’s exit by acquiring Ryan Tannehill prior to 2019. Tannehill replaced Mariota as the starter in Game 7.
2. Kirk Cousins. Plus-300.
With a $45 million salary cap charge in the final year of his contract and a new GM and head coach on their way, the Vikings may consider moving on without Cousins rather than reinvesting in him. If so, the natural connection to the Browns is undeniable. Kevin Stefanski was Cousins’ QB coach and offensive coordinator his first (and best) two years in Minnesota. Cousins would suffer no learning curve in the Stefanski offense. The hiring of former Berry assistant Kwesi Adofo-Mensah as Vikings GM strengthened the connection. A trade for Cousins might resemble what Philadelphia received from Indianapolis for Carson Wentz: a third-round draft pick in 2022 plus a conditional higher pick in 2023.
3. Derek Carr. Plus-500.
Carr’s future with the Raiders hinges on a re-evaluation after the team hires a new GM and head coach. Carr is much less expensive than Cousins for the Raiders to keep. He has one year on his contract for $19.77 million. But if new team leadership wants to move forward with a new quarterback, trading Carr would carry no dead money on the team’s cap. Carr has missed only two games in eight seasons, but he has piloted the Raiders to only one postseason appearance. His career record is 57-71, counting the loss to the Bengals in the AFC wild card round.
4. Jimmy Garoppolo. Plus-750.
The only quarterback on this list playing in the NFL conference championship round this weekend, Garoppolo has gamely played without complaint during what he and coach Kyle Shanahan acknowledged early on would be a lame-duck season. The 49ers committed to Trey Lance as their quarterback-of-the-future after trading No. 1 picks through 2023 in the last draft to move up to take him at No. 3 overall. They need to trade Garoppolo to recoup a high draft pick. Garoppolo’s pedestrian statistics and injury history (25 missed games in four years) often overshadow his reputation as a winner. With the 49ers, he is 31-14 in regular-season starts and 5-1 in the playoffs. Garoppolo is under contract for 2022 at about $25 million. Trading for him would result in a new multi-year contract.
5. Mitchell Trubisky. Plus-750.
The former No. 2 overall pick of the Chicago Bears is seeking to become the next Tannehill – a quarterback reborn in new surroundings. He spent 2021 in exile in Buffalo as Josh Allen’s unused backup after four unfulfilling seasons in Chicago. Nevertheless, he did lead the Bears to a 12-4 record his second season and playoff appearances in 2018 and 2020. Overall, his record was 29-23. Trubisky will be a free agent and wouldn’t cost anything in trade. Signing him to a prove-it deal would set up a camp and perhaps season-long competition with Mayfield. Trubisky was the choice of chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta for the Browns’ No. 1 overall pick in 2017, but Sashi Brown chose Myles Garrett instead. Still, Berry was involved in the evaluation of Trubisky in his first stint with the Browns. One consideration is whether playing in his hometown would be an unnecessary burden for Trubisky.
6. Matt Ryan. Plus-800.
Ryan survived Year 1 of the new Arthur Smith coaching regime, but the Falcons may consider moving on in Year 2. Ryan’s cap hits over the next two years of $48.6 million and $43.6 million may expedite a parting. Ryan, 36, has been amazingly durable during 14 seasons in Atlanta and he was the league MVP in 2016 running a similar offense under Kyle Shanahan. Although he’s spent his entire NFL career playing home games indoors, he’s a native of Philadelphia and played at Boston College.
7. Aaron Rodgers. Plus-1000.
Rodgers is debating whether he wants to retire or move on to another team. The Browns have two attractions: Their roster is ready to win and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt was Rodgers’ QB coach in Green Bay from 2014-17. Rodgers, 38, would figure to demand about $40 million in salary and the Packers would have to be compensated with multiple No. 1s.
8. Russell Wilson. Plus-1200.
The Seattle Seahawks icon has fallen short of demanding a trade, but he may be seeking greener pastures to get back to the Super Bowl. There’s no indication the Seahawks will part with him. Wilson’s no-trade clause complicates things. Wilson has two years on his contract at $19 million and $22 million and would surely want something new in a trade. A $40 million-a-year deal isn’t out of the question.
9. Deshaun Watson. Plus-1500.
Under the DePodesta-Brown-Berry regime in 2017, the Browns turned their backs on Watson when they traded the No. 12 overall pick to Houston to collect future assets. Now Watson carries the heavy baggage of 22 civil lawsuits alleging sexual misconduct. The Texans reportedly are demanding three No. 1 draft picks in a trade for Watson, who has a no-trade clause to help choose his destination.
10. Rookie draft pick. Plus-2000.
This isn’t a great draft to select a quarterback, but if the Browns take a liking to one they could probably get him with their pick at No. 13 in the first round. If they did that, he would sit as a rookie behind Mayfield and be expected to take over in 2023.
