Kevin Stefanski has never lost to a Mike Vrabel-coached team in two meetings.
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns and NFL analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland. He has covered the Browns since 1984.
FOXBOROUGH, MA
Four downs on Browns (2-5) v. New England Patriots (5-2)
First down: The Vrabes Bowl.
Kevin Stefanski never was going to be replaced by Browns coaching and personnel consultant Mike Vrabel during or after last season’s 3-14 debacle. Stefanski was only in his first year into a contract extension when the entire organizational effort to cater to Deshaun Watson proved a disaster. Vrabel had too much respect for Stefanski and the Browns to overstep his bounds as a consultant and even passive-aggressively lobby for a permanent position. Plus, Vrabel knew he would have no problem re-entering the NFL coaching derby. He landed in the obvious place – the Patriots, who had inducted him in their franchise hall of fame during his last season as Tennessee Titans coach. This coaching match-up comes at a time when Vrabel is riding high and Stefanski is still climbing out of a hole partially created by some funky QB moves by GM Andrew Berry. While it might look like a coaching mismatch to Stefanski’s many critics, consider this: Stefanski was 2-0 against Vrabel’s Titans. The Browns beat the Titans in Nashville, TN, 41-35, in 2020 when both teams were 8-3. And they beat them, 27-3, in Cleveland in 2023 – which proved to be Vrabel’s last season in Tennessee.
Second down: The next great Patriots QB.
Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels had to have something to do with Tom Brady’s legendary career, right? McDaniels was New England’s quarterback coach or offensive coordinator for 15 of Brady’s 20 seasons with the Patriots. Now on his third tour of duty with the Patriots, McDaniels has turned Drake Maye into one of the league’s most feared quarterbacks. Maye's had six consecutive games with a 100+ passer rating. Brady had eight straight such games in 2007 and 2010. Maye broke a Brady record last week against Tennessee by completing 91.3% of his passes. He can become the first New England QB to have three games in a row of over 80% completions with another big game against the Browns. Overall, Maye is completing 75.2% and he matches Jared Goff with an NFL-best 116.4 season rating. His completions percentage and 12 touchdowns v. 2 interceptions are the major factors in that high rating. “He’s accurate, big arm, very mobile, kind of checks all those boxes,” Stefanski said. “And he’s doing a good job of operating in that offense, and then playing off schedule. He can scramble. He’s very, very fast. So, he’s doing a lot of things well.”
Third down: Two rookies will lead the way.
The Browns’ offense is in the hands of rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel and rookie running back Quinshon Judkins. Judkins is first among rookie backs and 11th overall with 467 yards rushing. His 4.3 rushing average ranks 25th, but Judkins leads all backs with four rushes of 30+ yards. He has been the only explosive offensive player on the Browns. The Browns are 1-2 in Gabriel’s three starts, but he really hasn’t been the reason for any loss or the win. The best that can be said about Gabriel is he has not turned over the ball in three games. Sure, he may have been intercepted five times if not for DB drops and a penalty that negated an INT. But Gabriel’s stat line also would look better if not for dropped passes; the Browns rank second in the NFL with 16 drops, per at least one Website. Gabriel has only three completions of 20+ yards. It sounded this week like the Browns’ coaches are intent on changing that. “He was not trigger-shy on [throwing downfield] throughout camp, throughout the preseason,” said coordinator Tommy Rees. “We just have to give him the right looks and make sure that we’re preparing him to trust those things, and see them and let them go.”
Fourth down: Special teams showdown.
Bubba Ventrone said, “Mike Vrabel is what football is all about.” He recalled a story of when they were teammates with New England and Vrabel, in his 10th NFL season – a Pro Bowl year, to boot – Vrabel would play on the Patriots’ punt return unit. As a head coach, Vrabel has always had strong special teams, and that is the case with his Patriots team. The Patriots boast the No. 1 punt returner in Marcus Jones (23.1-yard average with an 87-yard TD) and also had a 90-yard TD on a kick return by Antonio Gibson (now on injured reserve). By the way, Jones needs eight returns to qualify for highest punt return average in NFL history. He has a 14.6-yard career average on 67 returns. Last week, the Browns produced a turnover against Miami when Grant Delpit punched the ball out on a kickoff and Rayshawn Jenkins recovered. That play, and a blocked Green Bay field goal by Shelby Harris, have been the few highlights of a rough season for Browns special teams. They’ll need to have their best game for the Browns to defeat the Patriots.
The pick: Patriots 24, Browns 16.
My record: 2-5