With Fernando Mendoza separating himself as the prospective No. 1 pick in the draft, a loss to the Jets would move the Browns closer to landing the Indiana quarterback.
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns and NFL analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland. He has covered the Browns since 1984.
Four downs on Browns (2-6) v. New York Jets (1-7)
First down: Will it make a difference?
For the second year in a row, Kevin Stefanski has agreed that he’s not getting the job done with his offense. So he ceded play-calling duties to his offensive coordinator -- this time Tommy Rees. Over the course of the rest of the 2024 season, the change made no difference. Scoring actually went down .6 points per game with Ken Dorsey in control of the joystick. Rees has a bigger challenge than Dorsey. He’ll try to improve on the Browns’ 15.8 points per game with a rookie quarterback, Dillon Gabriel, making his fifth career start. Dorsey had veteran Jameis Winston to run the offense for a few games. After a promising debut in London against the Vikings, Gabriel has regressed (shades of Cody Kessler) and seemingly has become allergic to throwing the ball to wide receivers. He’ll get back tall Cedric Tillman after he missed four games with a hamstring injury. Gabriel’s league-worst 4.9 yards per pass attempt is a result of throwing 58% of his passes to backs or tight ends and connecting on only 50% of his throws (28 of 56) to wideouts. Rees’ take on this malady: “We have to put the receivers in the right spots. We have to ask them to do the right things. We have to make sure that we’re giving them the looks during the week. All that work is done throughout the week, and then when a team’s doing something that’s gonna take it away, you have to have counters and answers for that.” OK, so have at it, Tommy Boy.
Second down: If not now, then when?
Rees couldn’t have picked a better opponent against which to debut as offensive play-caller. While the Jets are a modest 20th overall in yards allowed, and 11th against the pass, they are the only team without an interception, have only one takeaway overall, and are tied for next-to-last with but 11 sacks. Further, their GM, Darren Mougey, held a fire sale this week and traded his best defensive players – defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and cornerback Sauce Gardner – for three first-round picks, a second-round pick, and two veteran players – defensive tackle Mazi Smith and receiver Adonai Mitchell. Should the Browns expect to meet a demoralized Jets’ defensive unit? “I’m sure there was probably some talk, like, ‘What’s going on?’” opined guard Joel Bitonio. “But I think [the Jets] trust Coach [Aaron] Glenn and what they’re doing. The guys still there are going to be hungry and want to prove themselves as players. I think football’s too violent a game for ... guys to just lay down."
Third down: They do one thing well.
Like most teams with a running quarterback (see: Baltimore Ravens), the Jets have a lethal running game. Their 5.2 yards per rush matches the Ravens for tops in the league. Lead back Breece Hall (581 yards, 5.0 average, 2 TD) is good enough, and his effectiveness is enhanced when quarterback Justin Fields takes on the dual role as a runner (288 yards, 5.4 average, 3 TD). “It just makes you defend one extra guy,” said defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. “It’s like having an extra blocker out there because you have to have availability to handle the quarterback. It certainly adds a different dimension. Fields has tremendous speed. He’s a 4.3 type quarterback. He’s got great size. They have called quarterback runs like quarterback sweeps, particularly in short yardage. They have quarterback draws and then they have options, whether it’s a zone read or an RPO and things like that. It just really makes you play a sound. It’s like playing the triple option in college, right?” Schwartz may be without his leading tackler, rookie linebacker Carson Schwesinger, who is questionable with a high ankle sprain.
Fourth down: That’s all, Folk.
Nick Folk, 41, is the second-oldest kicker in the NFL by two months, and the most accurate kicker this year, last year, and the year before that. He’s the only kicker not to miss a kick – 17 of 17 on field goals and 9 of 9 on PATs. Folk has led the NFL in field goal percentage three years in a row, making 67 of 69 since 2023. “He’s incredible,” said Browns kicker Andre Szmyt. “I don’t know how he still does it. It’s been like three years in a row. It’s crazy, the production he has.” If the game is close, yes, the Jets have a big advantage. The loser of this game stays in the hunt for presumptive No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza of Indiana.
The pick: Jets 20, Browns 13.
My record: 3-5.