Whether it's Kenny Pickett or Joe Flacco as the opening game QB, the Browns will rank fourth in their division at that position as the 2025 season starts. (Cleveland Browns)
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is an analyst of the Cleveland Browns for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland. He has covered the Browns since 1984.
There are no better indicators of NFL season expectations than the over-under numbers proffered by the sports books and football Websites after official schedules are released, and then the NFL schedule itself.
The consensus of the Browns’ over-under win total is 4.5. That is a full game lower than the next-lowest of 5.5 assigned to the Giants, Jets and Titans. It’s two games lower than the 6.5 projected for the Panthers, Raiders and Saints.
More relevant, perhaps, was the NFL schedule reveal last week.
The Browns joined the Titans and Saints as the only teams not to receive a single prime-time game on the 2025 schedule. That hasn’t happened since the 2017 season. The Browns summarily complied with the projection by going 0-16.
On a Zoom conference call with media last week, NFL schedule-makers did not apologize for snubbing the Browns, Titans and Saints.
Their message was: “We listen to the networks, who know their audiences. You have to play your way into prime-time games.”
The possibility of being flexed into a prime-time game late in the season exists for the Browns. But on the Zoom call, NFL officials pointed out the predominant reason to flex a prime-time game is to replace a clunker matchup rather than to highlight an unexpected team on the rise.
Last year, the Browns suffered the indignity of being flexed out of two prime-time games late in the year, including the first-ever flex out of a Thursday night appearance.
Thus, the lowest of low expectations.
Myself, I think the Browns exceed the 4.5 win mark. I think their roster is not No. 32 in the league pecking order. But part of national projections of a 4-13 or 5-12 season for the Browns is the fact that every other team’s roster is improved, too.
A team’s final record often is determined by its luck in avoiding injuries to major players and catching an injury-ravaged team at the right time.
Injuries are impossible to project. But we can assess how the Browns’ opponents have improved.
Games 1 and 17: Cincinnati Bengals
Consensus win total: 9.5
Major adds: Defensive coordinator Al Golden, DE Shemar Stewart (r), OG Dylan Fairchild (r).
Major losses: DE Sam Hubbard, DT Sheldon Rankins.
Comment: The Bengals opened the vault to re-sign WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and keep QB Joe Burrow happy. But they also re-signed key players like TE Mike Gesicki, DT B.J. Hill and DE Joseph Ossai. Altogether, the moves verify Bengals ownership acknowledges its Super Bowl window is indeed wide open.
Games 2 and 10: Baltimore Ravens
Win total: 11.5
Major adds: WR DeAndre Hopkins, S Malaki Starks (r), DE Mike Green (r), PK Tyler Loop (r).
Major losses: PK Justin Tucker, OG Patrick Mekari, CB Brandon Stephens.
Comment: Like the Bengals, the Ravens’ highest priority in free agency was to retain one of its best players – LT Ronnie Stanley. The Ravens should be strong enough to turn the page on the Tucker era, but Super Bowl contenders have been upended before by a problematic kicking situation. So Loop better come through.
Game 3: Green Bay Packers
Win total: 9.5
Major adds: CB Nate Hobbs, OG Aaron Banks, WR Mecole Hardman, WR Matthew Golden (r), WR Savion Williams (r),
Major losses: DT T.J. Sloan.
Comment: The Packers went through Aaron Rodgers’ entire career without devoting too much investment in wide receivers. This year they provided Jordan Love with two high draft choices and a cheap free agent at the position. Ultimately, they have a surplus of young receivers that could result in some interesting trade talk at the 53 cut.
Game 4: Detroit Lions
Win total: 10.5
Major adds: CB D.J. Reed, DT Tyleik Williams (r).
Major losses: Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, DE Za’Darius Smith, CB Carlton Davis, OG Kevin Zeitler.
Comment: Getting back premier pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson after a fractured leg cost him the final 12 games last year ranks as their biggest add. But their inability to locate a complementary edge rusher looms as a concern. They could find him before September, however.
Game 5: Minnesota Vikings
Win total: 8.5
Major adds: DT Jonathan Allen, DT Javon Hargrave, OG Will Fries, C Ryan Kelly, OG Donovan Jackson (r)
Major losses: QB Sam Darnold, C Garrett Bradbury, S Cam Bynum, OT Cam Robinson.
Comment: Handicapped by a league-low five draft picks, the Vikings loaded up in free agency on a team that won 14 games last year. The question now is if QB J.J. McCarthy can overcome a rookie season lost to a summer knee injury and assimilate as an instant leader.
Games 6 and 16: Pittsburgh Steelers
Win total: 8.5
Major adds: WR DK Metcalf, LB Malik Harrison, CB Darius Slay, QB Mason Rudolph, FS Juan Thornhill, DT Derrick Harmon (r), RB Caleb Johnson (r), DE Jack Sawyer (r), QB Will Howard (r).
Major losses: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, RB Najee Harris, CB Donte Jackson, OT Dan Moore, WR George Pickens, DT Larry Ogunjobi.
Comment: Uncharacteristically hyper-active in the veteran market, the biggest add yet to come, perhaps this week, will be QB Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers are definitely feeling the frustration of not being post-season relevant since 2016.
Game 7: Miami Dolphins
Win total: 8.5
Major adds: OG James Daniels, QB Cooper Rush, QB Zach Wilson, DT Kenneth Grant (r), DT Jordan Phillips (r), QB Quinn Ewers (r).
Major losses: DT Calais Campbell, S Jevin Holland.
Comment: A year ago, the Dolphins re-upped QB Tua Tagavailoa to a $212 million contract, including $167 million guaranteed. And yet they added three quarterbacks this year. Interesting.
Game 8: New England Patriots
Win total: 8.5
Major adds: HC Mike Vrabel, OC Josh McDaniels, C Garrett Bradbury, LB K’Lavon Chaisson, WR Stefon Diggs, CB Carlton Davis, QB Joshua Dobbs, LB Harold Landry, LB Robert Spillane, DT Milton Williams, OT Will Campbell (r), RB TreVeyon Henderson (r), DT Joshua Farmer (r).
Major losses: C David Andrews, QB Jacoby Brissett, CB Jonathon Jones, DE Deatrich Wise.
Comment: It’s quite a credit to Vrabel that the win total is set at 8.5 after consecutive seasons of 4-13 – the worst two seasons in the 31 years of ownership of Robert Kraft, who turns 84 in June. The Browns let Vrabel, their 2024 personnel and coaching consultant, out of their building without seriously considering him as a successor to Kevin Stefanski.
Game 9: New York Jets
Win total: 5.5
Major adds: HC Aaron Glenn, QB Justin Fields, S Andre Cisco, CB Brandon Stephens, OT Armand Membou (r), TE Mason Taylor (r), S Malachi Moore (r).
Major losses: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Davante Adams, DT Javon Kinlaw, TE Tyler Conklin, OT Morgan Moses, LB Haason Reddick, CB D.J. Reed, DT Solomon Thomas.
Comment: Glenn summoned his inner Bill Parcells by telling Rodgers to his face that his services were no longer desired. There’s a new sheriff in town, and the Jets will be the better for it.
Game 11: Las Vegas Raiders
Win total: 6.5
Major adds: HC Pete Carroll, QB Geno Smith, S Jeremy Chinn, RB Ashton Jeanty (r), WR Jack Bech (r),
Major losses: QB Gardner Minshew, S Tre’Von Moehrig, CB Nate Hobbs.
Comment: Carroll is a difference-maker coach and Smith brings a competent passer to lead the rejuvenation of a stale offense. The Raiders should be a lot better.
Game 12: San Francisco 49ers
Win total: 10.5
Major adds: DC Robert Saleh, TE Luke Farrell, QB Mac Jones, WR Demarcus Robinson, DE Mykel Williams (r), DT Alfred Collins (r), RB Jordan James (r).
Major losses: WR Deebo Samuel, OG Aaron Banks, DT Jevon Hargrave, S Talanoa Hufanga, OT Jaylon Moore, CB Charvarius Ward.
Comment: After locking up QB Brock Purdy with a $265 million contract, the 49ers will have to rely on astute drafting over the next three years to regain their NFC-elite status. Their win total seems a tad generous.
Game 13: Tennessee Titans
Win total: 5.5
Major adds: OT Dan Moore, OG Kevin Zeitler, WR Tyler Lockett, S Xavier Woods, DE Dre’Mont Jones, QB Cam Ward (r), DE Oluwafemi Oladejo (r), TE Gunnar Helm (r).
Major losses: LB Harold Landry, QB Mason Rudolph, LB Kenneth Murray.
Comment: I don’t know if Ward can have the same immediate impact as C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels. But he, and an improved offensive line, should make them better from the start.
Game 14: Chicago Bears
Win total: 8.5
Major adds: HC Ben Johnson, OG Joe Thuney, C Drew Dalman, OG Jonah Jackson, DE Dayo Odeyingbo, DT Grady Jarrett, WR Devin Duvernay, TE Colston Loveland (r), WR Luther Burden (r).
Major losses: OL Teven Jenkins.
Comment: The future of this franchise rests on Johnson being able to de-program QB Caleb Johnson’s bad habits and turn him into a winner.
Game 15: Buffalo Bills
Win total: 11.5
Major adds: DE Joey Bosa, LB Michael Hoecht, DT Larry Ogunjobi, CB Maxwell Hairston (r), DE Landon Jackson (r), DT T.J. Sanders (r).
Major losses: DE Von Miller, CB Kaiir Elam, WR Mack Hollins.
Comment: Josh Allen has a new contract for $300 million, including a record $250 million guaranteed. Like the Bengals with Burrow, their Super Bowl window will be open as long as Allen is playing. The Bills really beefed up on defense.
(r) means rookie)