The Chiefs are going for their third Super Bowl win in a row and fourth with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and Andy Reid as coach. The Eagles are trying to avenge a 3-point loss in Super Bowl 57. (TheLandOnDemand)
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is an analyst of the Cleveland Browns for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland. He has covered the Browns since 1984.
Four downs on Super Bowl 59
Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) v. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
First down: Making history (sort of).
No professional sports league practices recency bias more than the NFL. Case in point: The Chiefs’ potential to “make history” by becoming the first team to “three-peat” a Super Bowl championship. Technically, it’s true. But keep in mind the Super Bowl is only 59 years old. The NFL is 103 years old. There were 44 NFL champions crowned before the merger of the NFL and AFL created the first Super Bowl in January of 1967. Recent generations of fans might be surprised to learn that there have been two previous cases of a team “three-peating” in the league championship. The Green Bay Packers of coach Vince Lombardi won three straight NFL championships following the 1965, 1966 and 1967 seasons. The latter two championship are more commonly known as Super Bowls 1 and 2. Prior to that, the Packers under coach Curly Lambeau won three successive NFL championships following the 1929, 1930 and 1931 seasons. None of this history detracts from the Chiefs’ modern-day amazing run. And winning a third straight Super Bowl indeed would be historic. But, to me, what makes a Kansas City win most significant is that it would set up the Chiefs for the truly unprecedented four-peat – winning the NFL championship four years in a row. That, in my opinion, would make the Chiefs the greatest NFL dynasty of all time.
Second down: More than the quarterback.
It’s too easy of an analysis to say that the quarterback possessing the ball last will win. That’s the tendency because Patrick Mahomes has spoiled everyone into thinking that’s all it takes for the Chiefs to win. In truth, the Chiefs have compiled the best season record in the Mahomes era despite Mahomes posting career-lows or near career-lows in yards, touchdowns, average yards-per-attempt, and passer rating, and a career-high in sacks. In fact, Mahomes finished sixth in MVP voting in the Associated Press balloting this season and garnered no first- or second-place votes. The secret to the Chiefs’ success is as much their coaching as Mahomes’ excellence. The Chiefs simply don’t beat themselves. So when I analyze this game, I ask which team is more likely to lose, rather than win. And that answer is the Eagles. They lost to the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57 two years ago even though quarterback Jalen Hurts outplayed Mahomes. They lost because a Hurts fumble was returned 36 yards for a touchdown by Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton and Kadarius Toney returned a Philadelphia punt 65 yards to set up another KC touchdown. Those two mistakes cost the Eagles the game, won by the Chiefs, 38-35. No quarterback alone beats Mahomes. It takes a complentary game of offense, defense and special teams to do it.
Third down: Think defensive tackle, not edge rusher.
Defensive dominance in the current pass-happy era is commonly attributed to the so-called edge rushers, the defensive ends swooping in from the left or right side to sack the quarterback on a key down. Actually, winners of the last five Super Bowls have been led, defensively, by dominant performances at the interior tackle position. Ndamukong Suh, Aaron Donald, Chris Jones have been the key defensive players in the last five Super Bowls. Jones remains Kansas City’s most destructive defensive player as he seeks his fourth Super Bowl championship ring. Similarly, the Eagles’ No. 1-ranked defense is led by a pair of young tackles, 314-pound Jalen Carter and 336-pound Jordan Davis. They don’t lead the team in sacks, but they have been dominant forces in the pass and run game throughout the playoffs. The best games among these players are likely to dictate the winner.
Fourth down: Oh, those kickers.
The Chiefs have mastered the art of winning close games. They’re on a record streak of coming out on top in 17 consecutive one-score games. Not all have come down to a field goal, but their kicker(s) assume an even more integral role on their team during a season in which their point differential of plus-59 was by far the lowest ever for a team with 15 or more regular-season wins. Harrison Butker’s 35-yard field goal with 3:33 left was the difference in their 32-29 victory over Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game, and Butker converted three field goals in KC’s 23-14 victory over Houston in the divisional playoff game. Butker missed four games this season after meniscus surgery. Since returning, he is 13 of 14 on PATs and 7 of 9 on field goals, including the playoffs. In the Chiefs’ dynasty run starting in 2020, Butker is 36 of 40 on field goals in the postseason. Jake Elliott of the Eagles was less reliable this season, but more so in his postseason career. His 77.8 make percentage (28 of 36) this season was the second-lowest in his eight-year career. However, in postseason, including Super Bowl appearances after the 2018 and 2022 seasons, Elliott has been nearly perfect, connecting on 22 of 23 field goals. His only miss was from 54 yards in the Eagles’ 55-23 rout of the Commanders in the NFC Championship.
The pick: Chiefs 26, Eagles 24.
My record: 12-5.