With three weeks to go, Josh Allen is back in the MVP picture, trying to become the first back-to-back MVP winner since Aaron Rodgers in 2021-22. (Buffalo Bills)
brought to you by Kaz Company - call 216-901-9300
You must have an active subscription to read this story.
Click Here to subscribe Now!
Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns and NFL analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland. He has covered the Browns since 1984.
Four downs on Browns (3-11) vs. Buffalo Bills (10-4)
First down: December football, Browns style.
When NFL coaches talk about December football, they’re not just referring to frigid wind chills and frozen fields. At this time of year in the NFL, you’re either trying to outlast the toll of injuries in a gruelling race to the finish line and maneuver into the best post-season seed, or you’ve succumbed to the war of attrition and are incapable of winning. Like so many other Browns seasons, the latter is their fate. Opportunities to win in September and October have long been squandered. Now the December avalanche of injuries has buried them beneath a pile of difficult decisions to come. The rookies are mostly into their 15th games, marking a longer season than they’ve ever experienced. And injuries have knocked out eight veterans of the original 22 starters including, most notably, cornerback Denzel Ward, tight end David Njoku and four offensive linemen. So quarterback Shedeur Sanders embarks on his fifth NFL start with modest goals, such as completing more than 60 percent of his passes and converting, what, 40 percent of his third-down situations? Through 4 ½ games, Sanders’ numbers in those tell-tale categories are 52.2 percent and 30.5 percent (18 of 59).
Second down: Back-to-backers?
The NFL has named a Most Valuable Player since 1936. Only six times has a player won the award in consecutive years – Jim Brown (1957-58), Joe Montana (1989-90), Brett Favre (1995-97), Peyton Manning (2003-04), Manning (2008-09) and Aaron Rodgers (2020-21). Josh Allen has a chance to join this select group. While Allen, the 2024 MVP, does not lead in any statistical passing category, the argument easily can be made that no player is more valuable to his team than him. He has accounted for 37 of his team’s 49 touchdowns, throwing for 25 and running for 12. And while running back James Cook ranks second in the NFL in rushing, Allen has no premier receivers on the field with him. His 535 rushing yards (5.5 average) and 12 TDs on the ground lead all quarterbacks. “Josh Allen runs like a fullback,” said defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. “There’s no trying to grab grass and get away from stuff, he’s trying to score, he’s trying to run people over. [When] he starts scrambling, it’s a lot like trying to tackle Derrick Henry – because there’s not a whole lot of difference in the size of those two guys. Great quarterback. He’s developed every year. He’s MVP for a reason. We got our work cut out for us, not just in the passing game, but also the way he uses his legs to scramble to buy time to create in the passing game, but also to run for yardage.”
Third down: Built for this.
Like the Chicago Bears, who mauled the Browns a week ago in Soldier Field, the Bills are now built offensively for the cold months of December and January. The Bills are first in the NFL in rushing attempts (442), first in rushing yards (2,219), first in rushing touchdowns (24) and second in rushing average (5.0). Of late, the Browns’ defense has been gashed on the ground by Tennessee and Chicago. “When it’s all said and done, defenses are judged by your ability to tackle, your ability to stop drives, and a big part of that is stopping the run,” Schwartz said. “So [we have a] great challenge this week with Buffalo. They’re the best run offense in the NFL. So if we don’t get it corrected, we won’t stand a chance in this game.”
Fourth down: Get there early.
Here’s how Browns games start, of late: They win the coin toss and defer to kick off on the analytics-based hope of earning an extra possession and holding the ball last in the first half and first in the second half. So they kick off to start the game and the opponent gashes them for a return to around mid-field. Chimeri Dike hit them with an opening kickoff of 41 yards to start the Tennessee game and David Duvernay blitzed by them for a 52-yard return to begin the Chicago game. The Bills sport the No. 1 kickoff returner in the NFL this year in Ray Davis. He’s averaging 32.4 yards per return. He has a league-high six returns of 40 yards or more, including a 97-yarder for a touchdown. The Browns rank 30th in kick coverage allowing an average of 28.8 yards per kickoff return. The Bills’ special teams coordinator is Chris Tabor, who held that position with the Browns from 2011-17 under four different head coaches – Pat Shurmur, Rob Chudzinski, Mike Pettine and Hue Jackson. Bubba Ventrone, the Browns’ embattled special teams coordinator, played for Tabor in 2011-12, when the Browns had not one but two lethal return specialists – Josh Cribbs and Travis Benjamin. “He was an assistant in Chicago before he came to us, with [legendary special teams coordinator] Dave Toub, who’s [now] in Kansas City," Ventrone said. "Toub’s obviously been known for his return game. He had [Hall of Famer Devin] Hester in Chicago. He’s had a number of really good returners in Kansas City. So, I guess you could say that [Tabor's] kind of from that, like, Toub tree.”
The pick: Bills 32, Browns 6.
My record: 8-6.