The Circa Sportsbook moved the Browns from 1 1/2-point underdog to 1 1/2-point favorite after news of injuries to Raiders stars Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams. (TheLandOnDemand)
You must have an active subscription to read this story.
Click Here to subscribe Now!
Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland. He has covered the Browns since 1984.
LAS VEGAS, NV
Four downs on Browns (1-2) v. Las Vegas Raiders (1-2)
First down: Survival of the fittest.
The NFL calendar is backwards this crazy year. So many injured star players are missing games so early in the season. It seems like December when the teams with the most healthy players prevail. The problem is these games weigh heavily because teams don’t know if they’ll be healthier in December – or even less so. The Browns have dealt with offensive line injuries the entire first month of the season. It appears tackles James Hudson and Dawand Jones will at least be able to start Sunday’s game. Whether they can finish is another issue. And Myles Garrett’s multiple lower-leg injuries have been well-documented. The Raiders aren’t immune to this injury bug. On Friday, coach Antonio Pierce told reporters his two best players – defensive end Maxx Crosby and receiver Davante Adams – were “out.” By the end of the day, though, the Raiders’ injury report upgraded Crosby’s status to “doubtful.” Crosby, one of the sport’s most disruptive pass rushers, played with a high ankle sprain against Carolina and was ineffective. If he repeats that performance – or misses the game entirely – it would swing the edge to the Browns. In fact, the point spread on this game swung 3 points in the Vegas sports books on Friday, making the Browns a 1 1/2-point favorite. It merely adds to the pressure on the Browns, whose pre-season expectations have been severely blunted already. “I’m not really worried about [the Raiders]. I’m worried about us,” safety Grant Delpit said. “I’m doing everything out there not to lose. This is a must-win game for us. Treat every snap as such and treat every practice this week as such, as well. It’s a must-win.”
Second down: Minshew Mania.
Raiders QB Gardner Minshew is completing 73.7% of his passes (which crazily ranks only fifth in the NFL), yet is fighting to keep his starting job. Perhaps Pierce decided to not make a change to Aidan O’Connell because of Minshew’s amazing game against the Browns last year in a 39-38 Browns win over the Colts. Minshew threw for 305 yard and 2 touchdowns, and scored TDs on runs of 17 and 4 yards. “He bought some time on some passes and made a couple plays with his feet and we have to guard against both of those,” said defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. “He hasn’t been designed running very much this year, but everybody we face this year has that component. We have to be ready for that because he does have good mobility. He’s one of those guys, he can get hot and we have to keep him from getting hot.” Added Delpit, “I’m glad we played him last because we were surprised by a lot of great plays on us. Now we know what he can do.”
Third down: It’s elementary, Mr. Watson.
The heat is intensifying on Deshaun Watson with every missed pass, missed read and failed opportunity. Through three games, he leads arguably the worst offense in the NFL, and among starting QBs Watson ranks 28th in completion percentage, 30th in yards-per-attempt, and 27th in passer rating -- just ahead of rookies Caleb Williams and Bo Nix. This week, both Watson and receiver Amari Cooper reacted badly to questions challenging Watson’s on-field decision to not throw the ball to open tight end Jordan Akins on a critical fourth-and-1 situation in the close loss to the Giants. Watson has received far harsher criticism nationally than from Northeast Ohio media. Many national platforms are calling for Watson to be replaced by Jameis Winston. Truth be told, Watson has been given a four-game free trial by more charitable local media to work off the rust in his game that is paralyzing his ability to make quicker decisions and releases of the ball. This is the fourth game. He needs to snap out of it or calls for a change will dramatically pick up.
Fourth down: Something must give.
When the Browns’ offense struggled through backup replacement quarterbacks last season, coach Kevin Stefanski turned to his still-vaunted offensive line to control the offense on the ground. This year, the Browns’ offensive problems start up front and on first down. They are averaging an unfathomably bad 3.47 yards on first down. Which is inextricably tied to their horrendously bad, league-low percentage of converting third downs and extending drives. They have converted only 8 of 43 third downs for 18.6%. The league average is 37.2%. “It’s something that we’re making sure to continue to focus on, continue to work at,” said offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. “You got to work, you got to grind through it, you got to figure out ways to just come out and not try to do too much, do our job and go out and execute.” The irony of Stefanski’s and Dorsey’s task is that they have to throw more on first down to change things and that means relying on Watson to make plays more than ever.
The pick: Browns 17, Raiders 13.
My record: 2-1.