Is this the game Nick Chubb breaks a run into the defensive secondary? (Cleveland Browns)
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is an analyst of the Cleveland Browns for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland. He has covered the Browns since 1984.
NEW ORLEANS, LA
Four downs on Browns (2-7) v. New Orleans Saints (3-7)
First down: All that jazz.
This game marks the end of what everyone considered the light portion of the Browns’ schedule. There’s a quick turnaround to a Thursday night home game against Pittsburgh, followed by a Monday night game in Denver and then Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh. These four games could set the course of what the Browns do in the offseason to dig out of the rubble of a season turned upside down.
Second down: Good Jameis, bad Jameis.
Jameis Winston returns to the scene of his best stretch of football, and also where he had his starting job taken by injury. In his two Browns starts, the latest replacement quarterback for Deshaun Watson has displayed the inconsistency that has marked his career. One 3-TD, 0-INT game and one 1-TD, 3-INT game. That has been Winston’s track record pretty much throughout his 10 years with the Buccaneers, Saints and now the Browns. He riddled the low-ranked Ravens pass defense for deep throws in the middle of the field and threw to the wrong-colored jerseys against the Chargers’ top-ranked defense. In New Orleans, a ball-hawking secondary that is third in the league with 12 interceptions awaits him.
Third down: Demise exaggerated.
With running-receiving threat Alvin Kamara awaiting next on his game-planning docket, defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz bemoaned the “comeback” of running backs in the NFL this year. “Reports of the death of running backs have been greatly exaggerated,” Schwartz quipped. “I mean, we’ve had Saquon [Barkley], we’ve had Derrick Henry and now Kamara, and these guys that really carried a load and really set the tempo for their offenses. He’s different than those guys. Saquon is strong and a jump cutter, and Derrick Henry is just a freight train straight ahead and stiff arms and things like that. Kamara is a different player. He can run inside the tackles, he can run wide, he’s really good in the pass game, he’s dangerous in screens. Anybody that’s the leading rusher and leading receiver is going to get your attention.” Actually, one thing the Browns have done consistently decently this year is defend the run. Henry had 73 yards and 1 TD on them, Barkley 47 yards and no TD. The leading ground-gainer v. the Browns this year has been the Chargers’ J.K. Dobbins (14 attempts, 85 yards, 2 TD). Second-best was Washington QB Jayden Daniels (11, 82).
Fourth down: Not in Cleveland.
While rushing the ball has been resurgent elsewhere, the Browns have gone backwards in that category. After changing most everything on offense to accommodate Watson, the Browns’ running game has virtually disappeared. In the four previous seasons under Kevin Stefanski, the Browns ranked third, fourth, sixth and 12th overall in rushing. This year they are 28th. Over those four seasons, the Browns averaged 2,338 rushing yards and 18.75 TDs. This year, they are on pace for 1,547 yards and 5.6 TDs. You can point to not having Nick Chubb for six games if you want, but he missed 15 games last year and the team still churned out 2,017 yards on the ground. Offensive line injuries? Well, they had just as many last year, if not more. No, the problem has been a discernible shift away from the running game and a resultant loss of physicality and toughness in that fundamental part of the game. Maybe they’ll be rejuvenated by the Saints’ defense. They rank 27th against the run and have allowed 14 rushing TDs.
The pick: Saints 24, Browns 16.
My record: 5-4.