The Browns' 2024 schedule can be divided into three distinct sections. (TheLandOnDemand)
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland. He has covered the Browns since 1984.
It was so easy to compartmentalize an NFL season when teams played 16 regular-season games.
Coaches would divide the season into four quarters – like a game. Every four games was a checkpoint on where their team stood in the season journey.
But with 17 games, the arithmetic doesn’t fit as well. So we’re going to dissect this Browns 2024 schedule into three unequal parts to determine their pathway to their first division championship.
Because that is what their initial goal should be.
Qualifying for the post-season as a wild card guarantees an early exit most of the time. Since the eight-division realignment in 2002, 40 of 44 teams to reach the Super Bowl won their division. The four outliers who advanced to the Super Bowl as wild cards were Tampa Bay in 2020, Green Bay in 2010, New York Giants in 2007, and Pittsburgh in 2005.
On to the 2024 schedule.
Fast getaway
Game 1, home v. Dallas Cowboys, September 8, Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Game 2, at Jacksonville Jaguars, September 15, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Game 3, home v. N.Y. Giants, September 22, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Game 4, at Las Vegas Raiders, September 29, Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Game 5, at Washington Commanders, October 6, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Game 6, at Philadelphia Eagles, October 13, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Analysis: It took the Browns 18 years to scale Mount Everest and begin a season 1-0. They’ve done it two years in a row now. But 2-0? You have to go back to the Bill Belichick era to find a 2-0 season start; actually, Belichick’s third team began 3-0 in 1993.
The Browns’ recent successive 1-0 starts were blunted in Games 2 by the meltdown against the Jets in 2022 and the horrific Monday night affair in Pittsburgh in 2023.
Thus, I am going to proclaim Game 2 in Jacksonville as one of the biggest games of the coming season.
(Ed. Note: For the purposes of this analysis, we are taking for granted a win in the season-opener at home against the Cowboys. That’s what a two-year winning streak in season openers will do to you.)
If the Browns started 2-0, I believe they would ride that wave into at least a 4-2 getaway to the season.
After Jacksonville, the Browns play three consecutive games against perennial losing teams. The Raiders, Giants and Commanders have a composite record of 62-89-2 over the past three years, with only two winning seasons out of a possible nine.
This stretch ends with a trip to Philadelphia, where the Browns are 0-2 in their expansion era.
Home days
Game 7, home v. Cincinnati Bengals, October 20, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Game 8, home v. Baltimore Ravens, October 27, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Game 9, home v. Los Angeles Chargers, November 3, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Bye week, November 10
Analysis: I’ll say it again: To win the division, generally you must win at least four of the six games against your rivals.
(Granted, this didn’t hold true in 2023. Baltimore was 3-3 in division games and 10-1 outside the division to finish 13-4. Pittsburgh was 5-1 in the division and 5-6 outside it.)
Being given their first two division games at home is a blessing to the Browns to the end of reaching the 4-2 target record.
The Chargers game will be interesting. New coach Jim Harbaugh will have the Chargers playing a tough, run-oriented, physical style of offense that would fit well in the AFC North. I don’t expect the offensive shoot-outs we’ve seen in the past two games against the Chargers, which were Browns losses of 30-28 and 47-42.
The bye week in Week 10 means the Browns will be able to spend 33 straight days at home between their Game 6 road game at Philadelphia and Game 11 road game at New Orleans.
Prime time gauntlet
Game 10, at New Orleans Saints, November 17, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Game 11, home v. Pittsburgh Steelers, November 21, Thursday, 8:15 p.m.
Game 12, at Denver Broncos, December 2, Monday, 8:15 p.m.
Game 13, at Pittsburgh Steelers, December 8, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Game 14, home v. Kansas City Chiefs, December 15, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Game 15, at Cincinnati Bengals, December 19, Thursday, 8:15 p.m.
Game 16, home v. Miami Dolphins, December 29, Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Game 17, at Baltimore Ravens, TBD, January 4 or 5.
Analysis: The Saints’ game leads into a short week and four prime-time games – possibly five – over the last seven weeks.
The hidden blessing in this stretch: The Browns will stay home for Thanksgiving week and Christmas week.
A Thursday prime-time against the Steelers at home is another blessing. This means the Browns first three division games are all at home. Just an incredible opportunity to reach that four-win division target score.
Games 12 and 13 at Denver and at Pittsburgh are watersheds in torture chambers for the Browns. They are 4-12 all-time in Denver and have only one win in six visits in their expansion era. The record in Pittsburgh is beyond ridiculous -- 20 straight regular-season losses.
It says here that the game at Pittsburgh is the single-most important game of the year for the Browns. They don’t win the division without winning in Pittsburgh.
Then comes the home date against the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs – almost a nuisance game, as it turns out – before another back-to-back prime-time gauntlet – at Cincinnati and home v. Miami.
The Dolphins have no business traveling to Cleveland on Christmas week and winning.
The finale in Baltimore could possibly serve as a franchise-cleanser.
I maintain the only remedy to heal the deep scars of Art Modell’s end run to Baltimore in 1996 would be a Browns victory over the Ravens either to clinch the division title or, even more meaningful, an AFC title.
The NFL and its network partners seemingly sense at least the possibility in the makeup of this 2024 schedule.