Denzel Ward is among many in the locker room who does not think the edge was taken off the defense by not playing in the 17th game in Cincinnati. (Cleveland Browns)
Two offseason projects for the Browns’ heralded analytics department
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland. He has covered the Browns since 1984.
Extra leftovers from Browns season exit interviews …
Like every team, the Browns will have their crack analytics team study things in the offseason that didn’t go exactly as planned.
I have two projects for them.
Project No. 1: Why did the defense play so poorly on the road?
Here the disparate numbers in three relevant defensive categories, adjusted for defensive touchdowns. We eliminated Game 17 in Cincinnati because the Browns didn’t play their regulars. The wild-card game in Houston is included.
Nine home games: 12.3 average points allowed, .250 opposing third-down percentage, 14 takeaways.
Opposing quarterbacks: Joe Burrow (reduced by a severe calf injury), Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, Clayton Tune, Kenny Pickett, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian.
Eight road games: 27.2 average points allowed, .347 opposing third-down percentage, 13 takeaways.
Opposing quarterbacks: Kenny Pickett, Gardner Minshew, Geno Smith, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Case Keenum/Davis Mills, C.J. Stroud.
Kevin Stefanski and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz had no reasonable answers during the season.
“You’re going to have to give me some time,” Stefanski said on Monday. “I think we have to pull that apart and look at it. I mean, it is something that you have to get to the bottom of, and we’ll look at it.”
Project No. 2: Was resting everybody in Game 17 the best thing to do?
The regulars went 16 days without playing a competitive game after beating the Jets on December 28 until the wild-card game on January 13.
The team played 12 games in 12 consecutive weeks after their early bye week, suffered numerous injuries and had several players playing through injuries. But they did have a mini-bye after the Jets game. Indisputably, they were flat in the wild-card game, particularly on defense.
Did the team lose its edge by resting most of the regulars in Game 17?
“I don’t think so, man,” said linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. “I think that Coach made a great decision. A lot of players came out healthy, some didn’t.”
“No, I don’t think so,” said cornerback Denzel Ward. “I mean, all our focus was on the playoffs [during Cincinnati week]. I don’t think guys necessarily needed to play that didn’t have to play. I don’t think it had any effect on our next game.”
Linebacker Anthony Walker, who was sidelined after knee surgery, said, “I mean, you’re gonna say that now because we lost. But if we win, and the guys look refreshed ...
"You can’t make that decision off the result. I think Kevin did what was best for the team, and A.B. [GM Andrew Berry], I think they knew what the guys needed. If we win that game, you’re not even asking that question.”
But they didn’t win. What’s more, they were flat on defense from the start and never regained their swagger and bad-assery.
I asked Stefanski if he would do it differently.
“You just go with the information that’s available to you in those decisions,” he said. “I wouldn’t – obviously [we] didn’t get the outcome we desired, but just trying to do what’s best for the football team.”
Would he do it differently next time?
“I think it’s always dependent on where you are in the future,” he said. “Where are you from a health standpoint, those are the type of things you’re always thinking about.”
Stefanski didn’t make the decision alone. Berry and Paul DePodesta, chief strategy officer, contributed after the analytics department looked into it.
Balancing play time v. injury risk in a meaningless game prior to the start of the playoffs is a challenge for every coach. It’s similar to a last preseason game but with so much more on the line.
I think the best solution is hoping the last game is meaningful to division or playoff seeding. That makes the decision easier for the coach. Play to win the game and keep the edge sharpened.
Brownie bits
Stefanski wouldn’t say he wants all his assistant coaches back when asked. “I think we’re evaluating everything right now,” he answered. “The other thing, as you know, is some guys will get opportunities over the next couple of weeks, so we’ll see how it all shakes out.” Last year, Stefanski replaced his defensive and special teams coordinator, and his quarterbacks coach left to become Arizona’s offensive coordinator …
Left guard Joel Bitonio, who suffered injuries to his knee, back and oblique muscle, now will start his 11th offseason rehabbing a “pretty good” high ankle sprain. He said he’s inspired by the sight of Jack Conklin and Nick Chubb and others rehabbing all year for next season. “And I told Nick, ‘I want to be out there blocking for you again because I miss you.’ I appreciate everything he’s doing to try and get back on the field.” …
The Browns signed the following players from their practice squad to reserve/futures contracts: receiver Jaelon Darden, defensive back Vincent Gray, running back John Kelly, tight end Zaire Mitchell-Paden, offensive tackle Justin Murray, defensive end Lonnie Phelps, linebacker Charlie Thomas, defensive end Isaiah Thomas, defensive tackle Chris Williams.
