Have defenses caught up with Mike McDaniel's fast-paced pass offense in his third season as Dolphins coach? Yeah, you might say that.
You must have an active subscription to read this story.
Click Here to subscribe Now!
Editor's note: Tony Grossi is an analyst the Cleveland Browns for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland. He has covered the Browns since 1984.
Browns v. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., in Huntington Bank Field
Record: 7-8.
Last game: Defeated San Francisco 49ers, 27-17, December 22, in Miami.
Coach: Mike McDaniel, 27-24, third year.
Series record: Dolphins lead, 12-9 (counting postseason).
Last meeting: Dolphins won, 39-17, November 13, 2022, in Miami.
League rankings: Offense is 17th overall (24th rushing, 15th passing), defense is eighth overall (sixth rushing, 11th passing) and turnover differential is minus-4.
Things to watch
1. The Dolphins’ 8% chance of making the playoffs depends on winning their final two games, Denver or the Chargers losing their final two games, and Indianapolis losing one game. Since Denver and the Chargers play on Saturday, Miami could be eliminated before Sunday’s game if either wins. At 9-8, though, Miami would own the AFC tiebreaker over Denver, the Chargers, and Cincinnati, but not Indianapolis.
2. Offensive production is way down in the third season under coach Mike McDaniel. Miami is 23rd in points and 17th in total yards after averaging 6.5 and 8.5, respectively, over McDaniel’s first two years. The drop-off can be partially attributed to defenses catching up to Miami’s formerly explosive passing game. Consistent two-high safety looks, and Miami’s intentional shift to get the ball out of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s hand to protect him better, have resulted in a veritable dink-and-dunk passing game.
3. Receiver Tyreek Hill is down 29.5% in receiving yards per game from his career average and Jaylen Waddle is down 25%. It’s possible Hill won’t reach 1,000 yards for the first time in five seasons and Waddle assuredly won’t for the first time in his career. The beneficiaries of the shorter passing game have been tight end Jonnu Smith (802 yards, 6 TD) and running back De’Von Achane (579 yards, 6 TD). Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 72.9% completion mark, but his 7.2 yards per attempt are lower than his career average. Because the Dolphins rely more than ever on yards after the catch, tackling is a premium when defending them.
4. Defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver runs a 3-4 base, but in pass-rush mode the key players to watch are tackles Zach Sieler (8.5 sacks) and Calais Campbell (four), and edge rushers Chop Robinson (six) and Emmanuel Ogbah (3.5).
5. Miami’s special teams under coordinator Dan Crossman have not been good. They ranked 32nd last season in the Gosselin Rankings and are near the bottom this year. They were victimized by a fake punt for a touchdown two weeks ago in Houston that was a pivotal factor in a 20-12 loss. Once exception is kicker Jason Sanders. He is the franchise all-time leader in field-goal accuracy (84.3%) and has a streak of 23 made in a row, including eight from 50 yards and beyond.
Did you know … ?
1. “The Dolphins can’t win in cold weather” is more of an exaggeration than a total misconception. True, in the Mike McDaniel era (since 2022), they are 0-4 in games when the temperature at kickoff was 45 degrees or lower. But those losses were to Buffalo (twice), Kansas City and Green Bay. They averaged 21 points in those four games. It’s not like they’ve lost to Chicago, the Jets and Giants.
2. Miami’s dink-and-dunk passing game has enabled the offense to possess the ball an average of 31 minutes, 46 seconds, which is fourth-best in the league. They have five possessions of 14 or more plays this season.
3. Former Browns linebacker Anthony Walker raised Christmas shopping to a new level this year. He surprised everyone on the team’s active roster with a replica jersey from their individual high school. He said it took weeks of research.
4. The Dolphins lost three straight games after their bye. Very unusual.
5. Tagovailoa has been extremely efficient in the red zone. Inside the 20, he is 41 of 57 (71.9%) for 255 yards, 16 TD, 0 INT and a passer rating of 120.2.
6. De’Von Achane weighs 188 pounds, but has become quite a productive back this season without missing a game. He has 761 yards rushing and 579 receiving and 11 TD total.
Small world: Mike McDaniels was Browns receivers coach in 2014 … tight ends coach Jon Embree held the same position with the Browns in 2013 … defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver was Browns defensive line coach in 2014-15 … defensive backs coach Ryan Slowik was Browns outside linebackers coach in 2016 … former Browns players include safety Jordan Poyer (2013-16), edge rusher Emmanuel Ogbah (2015-18), offensive tackle Kendall Lamm (2019-20) and linebacker Anthony Walker (2021-23) … offensive lineman Liam Eichenberg pattended St. Ignatius HS.