Browns hopes of winning division are dented, but not dead
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland. He has covered the Browns since 1984.
The Browns are one of 12 teams to reach the season quarter-pole with a 2-2 record.
A year ago there were 15 teams that checked in at 2-2 after four games. You know how many made the playoffs?
Seven.
So, all is not lost after losing to Baltimore, 28-3.
But hovering around the .500 mark is not the desirable pathway to the playoffs.
Last season, one 9-8 team in the AFC won its division (Jacksonville) and two 9-8 teams made the playoffs as their conference’s seventh seed wild-card team (Miami and Seattle). Both of the 9-8 wild-card teams squeaked in on tie-breakers and made early exits. (Tampa Bay won the sorry NFC South division with an 8-9 record.)
Nobody wants their postseason fate dependent on tie-breakers. Winning the division and earning a home playoff game should be the goal. Of the seven 2-2 teams that made the playoffs last year, four of them went on to win their division (Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and San Francisco).
Now, the reason the loss to Baltimore was extra painful is because the Ravens moved to 2-0 in the division and the Browns dropped to 1-2. Both of the Ravens wins have come on the road and they play in Pittsburgh on Sunday. If Baltimore wins in Pittsburgh to move to 3-0 in the division, the Ravens threaten to run away with the division title. If they lose, there is still hope for the Browns.
It would take sweeping their remaining three division games – at Baltimore on November 12, home v. Pittsburgh on November 19 and at Cincinnati on January 7.(Yes, of course, the Browns would have to win their share of non-division games, also. But failing to go 4-2 in the division most likely reduces the Browns to wild-card hopeful, at best.)
So what must the Browns do over the course of the remaining 13 games after the bye to improve their chances of catching and surpassing Baltimore in the AFC North standings?
These five things:
1. Get P.J. Walker up to speed as the No. 2 quarterback.
A team must believe in its backup quarterback in the event the starter can’t play. It is absolutely imperative. I don’t think that belief would be there if Watson misses another game – at any point over the next 13 weeks – and Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the replacement QB.
Walker has seven career NFL starts and won four of them. He is infinitely more qualified to serve as Watson’s primary backup than DTR right now. That is not opinion. That is fact.
The process of getting Walker some reps with the regular offense – and not just on the scout team – must begin immediately. DTR will be fine in the long haul. He is the future backup. The future is 2024, not 2023.
2. Reverse the turnover differential.
GM Andrew Berry was all over this issue in his Wednesday press conference. He is spot on.
The Browns have 10 giveaways and three takeaways. That minus-7 turnover differential is incredibly bad for four games. Only Minnesota (1-3) and Las Vegas (1-3) are worse.
Every coach and GM harps on the turnover margin being the No. 1 indicator of wins and losses. It’s quite simple. The Browns have to stop giving away the ball and start taking away the ball. A positive turnover differential doesn’t automatically guarantee more wins than losses. But a negative turnover differential just about guarantees more losses than wins.
3. More contributions from special teams.
Improvement in Browns special teams under new coordinator Bubba Ventrone is evident in at least two areas. The kicking game has been stabilized – thanks to kicker Dustin Hopkins – and penalties are down (only three in four games).
The special teams have not contributed to losses, which is faint praise. Now they have to contribute to wins.
Turnovers, blocked kicks, big returns to set up scores, using punts to flip field position favorably for the defense – all these things must be done for Ventrone’s special teams to be considered a weapon.
Yoo hoo, Za'Darius Smith. Where you been? Browns need some big plays out of you.
4. Za’Darius Smith must get on board.
Smith’s pressure and deflection of a Joe Burrow on the first play of the season set the tempo for the 24-3 win over the Bengals in the season-opener. Since then, Smith has been AWOL.
Smith has six tackles in four games, four quarterback hits, one tackle for loss, and one pass broken up.
That’s a far cry from what I expected. I considered Smith the most important new veteran player added by Berry in the transaction season. I actually thought he would challenge Myles Garrett for the team sack lead; at the very least, have a double-digit sack season.
If Smith can crank up the pressure opposite Garrett, I believe that would lead to more turnovers. All the best defenses have two elite pass rushers, not just one.
5. Deshaun Watson has to expand on his Tennessee performance and not take a step back.
Because of the slow start, Watson has to re-acquire his past form immediately. His next game will be his 10th in a Browns uniform. It’s time.
The Tennessee game was a major step forward, then came the DNP v. Baltimore. When Watson returns to the field, hopefully against San Francisco, he has to stack another good game on top of his last one. And then another, and then another.
He has distribute the ball to everybody, not just Amari Cooper. He has to keep running, but must do a better job of protecting himself at the ends of runs.
In sum, Watson has to be the quarterback the Browns traded and paid for.
If that happens, the Browns can reach their goal of challenging for, if not winning, the division title. If not, there is zero chance. Zero.
