Cavs guard Donovan Mitchell at the team's Wine and Gold Scrimmage. ESPN Cleveland/Rob Lorenzo
NBA Season Predictions: A successful Cavs season, a trio of All-Stars, and a new NBA MVP
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The Cleveland Cavaliers begin their regular season on Wednesday night In Toronto against a Raptors team that many believe will be in a fight with Cleveland down the stretch for playoff seeding. It’s a big game to start the season whether it’s being looked at up close or from a 30,000-foot view.
Rather than take a look at predictions for what this season becomes as a whole.
The Cavaliers have three All-Stars for the first time since 2017
With the addition of Donovan Mitchell, this might seem like a slam dunk of a prediction, but only one of the guys that makes the All-Star team this year for the Cavs will have represented them last year. Darius Garland will be an All-Star for the second time in his career, while Mitchell will become one for the fourth time.
The real part of the prediction is that second-year big man Evan Mobley will be joining them as a first-time All-Star. After what Mobley did last season, and the burden the Cavaliers have placed on him by publicly stating how important he is to not only what this franchise is now, but where it wants to go as well.
Mobley will continue to improve offensively, even if the addition of Mitchell means there’s less pressure to do so, and be a defensive stalwart to the point where it’s inarguable that he’s on the Eastern Conference All-Star team. He may not be a starter, but he’s going to be on the team, and deservedly so.
Mobley narrowly misses out on another honor
Part of the reason that Mobley is going to be named to the All-Star team is because his ability on the defensive end is already near the absolute top of the NBA. As a rookie, he received All-Defense votes, which is not something even remotely common. This season, Mobley will finish in the top three off the NBA defensive player of the year.
That might sound shocking, but given that Mobley is listed among the favorites to win the award – he has the seventh-best odds +2000 on FanDuel – along with Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, Miami’s Bam Adebayo, Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert, Boston’s Robert Williams, Golden State’s Draymond Green, and Phoenix’s Mikal Bridges.
Mobley again will be the best defender on a defense that finds itself ranked as one of the five best in the NBA. He’ll be too good for the voters to ignore. He’ll eventually win this award – if not multiple times – and this will be the year that marks his true entry into the fray.
Donovan Mitchell breaks the single-season 3-point attempts record…and Darius Garland does too
No one on the Cleveland Cavaliers has ever launched more than 510 3-pointers in a season. That mark was set by shooting guard J.R. Smith back during the team’s championship season of 2015-16, Smith’s first full-year with the franchise. At the time, Smith’s 510 attempts from deep was 63 more than the previous franchise record of 447 attempts by Wesley Person back in 1997-98.
That’s a franchise record that won’t stand anymore following this season. In fact, Smith’s single-season mark will drop from first down to third after this season.
There is little doubt that Mitchell will move past Person’s mark. In three of his first five seasons Mitchell has surpassed that number, including last season when he shot 654 times from deep. The two years that he didn’t surpassed that mark were both seasons that were shortened by the COVID-19 Pandemic. With all that said, expect Garland to top that mark as well.
Last season, Garland attempted 454 3-pointers, over 150 more than he had in any season prior. In doing so, he averaged just a shade under seven 3-pointers attempted per game. He did that while having to be the team’s main creator every second he was on the floor from the time Ricky Rubio tore his ACL until the season ended.
Garland won’t have to do that this season thanks to the addition of Mitchell, and that will help to boost his numbers from deep. Garland will have more catch-and-shoot opportunities this season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see both he and Mitchell average around nine attempts from 3-point range per game.
Provided they’re both in good health, that’s enough to break the mark that was set by Smith back in 2016.
Cleveland wins 49 games
The Cavaliers have the win total set by sportsbooks at 47.5 wins. That would mean the team improves by 3.5 wins from last season to reach that mark. Obviously, there’s no such thing as a half-win in the NBA, so it’s not possible for them to win 47.5 games.
Take the over. This Cavaliers team is going to win 49 games, marking its highest win total without LeBron James since the 1992-93 season. Garland, Mitchell, Mobley, and Allen represent the best core the team has had without James since back then, and the Cavaliers are going to be hungry to win regular season games. Last season was a surprise to many in the NBA, but the team didn’t achieve anything significant, or at least that’s the message they’re putting out publicly. The Cavaliers have talked as if they’re still a very hungry team. When that’s combined with as much talent as the Cavs currently possess, it typically leads to quite a few regular season wins.
...And is the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference
Most years, 49 wins in the Eastern Conference would mean hosting Game 1 of the first round of the playoffs. This year, it will only be good enough for the fifth seed. The Eastern Conference – and the NBA – may be in the most talented era that it has ever seen. The Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, and Philadelphia 76ers all have a case to be the best team in the conference. That leaves one spot remaining to have home court advantage in the Eastern Conference. With as much talent as there is left in Miami, Brooklyn, Toronto, and Atlanta, it’s likely that one of those teams finishes with more wins than the Cavs, but not more than that. Winning a series in the playoffs is without question an attainable goal, but not one that I’m ready to predict.
Joel Embiid wins the NBA MVP
After Denver’s Nikola Jokic won his second consecutive MVP award last season, he can be effectively ruled out from winning the award again. There hasn’t been an MVP three-peat since Boston’s Larry Bird won the award in 1984, 1985, and 1986. Jokic won’t be joining that club unless it’s incredibly obvious he’s having the best season in the NBA.
There are many candidates worthy of mentioning here, but Joel Embiid is going to be named the NBA MVP for the first time in his career. He’s finished second to Jokic in each of the last two seasons, but this season will be different.
If Embiid isn’t the guy that wins it, look for Antetokounmpo to win his third career MVP.
…and the Sixers win the most regular season games
Part of the reason Embiid will win the MVP is he’s going to be the best player on the team that wins the most regular season games in the NBA. There may not be a team in the league that wins 60 games this year – something that hasn’t happened in a full season since the 2000-01 season – but if one does, it’ll be the Sixers. This Philadelphia team has an MVP candidate in Embiid, a former MVP in James Harden, and a supporting cast that has been shaped terrifically around them.
There are reasons to be question whether the Sixers can be trusted in the postseason – mainly Harden’s postseason failures and Embiid’s health – but unless catastrophe strikes, the Sixers are going to be great in the regular season.
The Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference
While the Sixers are the team that could win the most games in the regular season, the Milwaukee Bucks are the team that everyone will want to avoid come late May. With Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and a healthy Khris Middleton, they’ll return to the NBA Finals for the second time in three seasons. Maybe the Sixers or Boston has something to say about it, but for now, the Bucks are the pick.
…and the LA Clippers win The Finals.
While the Bucks are the pick to win the East, they’re not the pick to win it all. For the first time in the history of their franchise, the LA Clippers are going to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy. LA is loaded with top end talent in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George and may have the deepest roster in all of basketball. The role players fit around Leonard and George seamlessly and head coach Ty Lue has plenty of experience navigating through strenuous playoffs. If Leonard and George are both healthy, Steve Ballmer will be seen celebrating in LA like Windows 95 is being launched again.
