The first couple of Cleveland Browns football -- Baker and Emily Mayfield -- could be moving out of their FirstEnergyStadium home if the Browns are successful in trading for Deshaun Watson. (Sports Illustrated)
Browns QB Sports Book: Are Baker Reagan Mayfield’s days in Cleveland numbered?
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
The fate of the Browns – and three other teams – is in the hands of Deshaun Watson, which gives enormous power to the one-time franchise quarterback of the Houston Texans disgraced by 22 civil suits of sexual misconduct alleged by massage therapists over a four-year period.
The Browns joined the Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons in making “all-in” trade proposals to the Texans this week and then trying to win Watson’s favor in separate face-to-face recruiting sessions.
Watson essentially can choose his next team by agreeing to waive his no-trade clause, after which the Texans would make the trade.
Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk reported through an anonymous source that Watson is “incredibly torn” between which destination to choose. The source added there is no timetable for Watson’s decision; it could come at any time.
The Saints are considered by sources to be the front-runner because of their location in the south, their solid roster and the relative weakness of the NFC v. the quarterback-loaded AFC. Playing home games in the Superdome also gives the Saints a big advantage.
The Browns’ unprecedented effort to trade for Watson has shook up our Browns Quarterback Sports Book, which has tracked the odds of the Browns’ projected starting quarterback for 2022 for seven weeks.
In fact, this edition – which could be the last – is the first time Baker Reagan Mayfield is not the odds-on favorite to return as Browns quarterback.
The odds changed significantly upon news of the Browns’ courtship of Watson. After GM Andrew Berry and coach Kevin Stefanski consistently said that Mayfield would return as Browns starter in 2022, their actions said otherwise.
Mayfield reacted on Tuesday by breaking his social media silence with a “thank you, Cleveland” letter posted on Instagram that contained no references to the Browns or his teammates and sounded like a farewell message.
What followed was a slew of media reports that the Browns had likely decided to move on from Mayfield even if Watson would snub their overtures.
It is assumed that the Ivy League-led football operations department of Berry, Stefanski and Paul DePodesta has a Plan B in place if the Browns don’t acquire Watson. We should soon what exactly is their Plan B.
By this time next week, the Browns could have a new quarterback. If so, this would be the last Browns Quarterback Sports Book.
1. Deshaun Watson. Plus-200 ($100 bet returns $200).
He was plus-5000 on our last book! A ton of money came in and made him the chalk bet. But it’s hardly prohibitive. Yes, the Browns went all-in for him – an unprecedented effort by the Haslam ownership. Yet they aren’t considered the favorite among the four competing teams courting him. Still, we know he is the Browns’ Plan A and that’s why the most money came down on him.
2. Jimmy Garoppolo. Plus-300.
He looks like the most logical Plan B after relations between the Browns and Mayfield became virtually irreconcilable. If not for his right shoulder surgery on March 8, Jimmy G. might have been the No. 1 target for the Browns. He’s been a respected leader and impeccable teammate on an elite NFC team and he knows the Browns’ offense through his experience under Kyle Shanahan. Yes, his injury history is a real concern. But that’s why he’s available despite a career record of 37-16 with the 49ers and Patriots. You’d be wary to invest in him beyond a two-year extension added to the last year of his present contract.
3. Baker Mayfield. Plus-800.
These odds soared when ESPN Insider Chris Mortensen, in a discussion about Mayfield’s future on Wednesday, reported that the Browns “want what they consider ‘an adult’ at the position.” Everyone in the media business knows that Mortensen’s spot-on information is gathered from sources at the highest levels of team organizations. If the swinging bridge joining the Browns and Mayfield was hanging by mere vines, this report probably blew it to smithereens.
4. Matt Ryan. Plus-1200.
This, of course, is contingent on Watson’s home-town Atlanta Falcons winning the sweepstakes for his services, which is easily the longest shot on that board. If that were to come to pass, however, Ryan, Garoppolo and Mayfield would vie for the opening in Indianapolis. Ryan seems like the typical Colts quarterback acquisition – recycled and attracted to dome football. But if the Colts were swayed to Garoppolo or Mayfield, Ryan should appeal to the Browns because of his career record, his impeccable reputation and his familiarity with the Shanahan offensive system.
5. Derek Carr. Plus-2000.
It’s frequently been reported that the Raiders are preparing to extend Carr’s contract. Until that happens, he’s available. If something went awry, a Carr-for-Mayfield trade would enable both teams to try to win with a new quarterback without committing to him immediately. Both QBs are in the final years of their contracts and there would be no cap penalties. Raiders coach Josh McDaniels had a favorable opinion of Mayfield prior to the 2018 draft. If he still does, Mayfield could be an alternative to Carr. The Browns probably would have to sweeten the pot in a trade, but Carr would be a nice alternative if the Watson trade falls through.
6. Marcus Mariota. Plus-2100.
If the Watson trade fails … and if the Browns are determined to replace Mayfield … and if the Garoppolo/Ryan/Carr options don’t pan out … then what? Ladies and gentlemen, I present Marcus Mariota as a one-year bridge quarterback to 2023.
