Pro Football Focus ranked Kirk Cousins No. 6 among quarterbacks in 2021. Do the Browns agree with that lofty opinion? (USA Today)
Browns QB Sports Book: Bolstered by a high analytics rating, Kirk Cousins inches up the board
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
Super Bowl week spurred a lot of movement on the Browns Quarterback Sports Book located in the Fabulous Rizzo Casino & Resort.
It wasn’t just the lesson given by the Los Angeles Rams, that a franchise believing it’s a quarterback away from winning the Super Bowl should do whatever it takes to make it happen. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers wrote the blueprint the year before, of course, but they didn’t have to mortgage future draft picks for Tom Brady as the Rams did with Matthew Stafford. Still, the outcomes were the same – a Super Bowl championship.
There was also more buzz about potential movement of veteran quarterbacks hungry to replicate what Brady and Stafford did for their new teams the past two seasons.
The end result of social media innuendoes and peccadilloes around the NFL is that the gap has narrowed between Baker Mayfield returning as Browns starting quarterback in 2022 and someone from the field taking over.
With the Super Bowl completed, the phone lines are now open for teams to begin sowing the seeds of trade or preliminary free agent conversation.
1. Baker Mayfield. Odds: Plus-175 ($100 bet returns $175).
Everyone saw the impact Odell Beckham Jr. had on the Rams – before and after his injury in the Super Bowl. The “Odell Beckham Is Always Open” video may have to be expanded into a “30 for 30” documentary some day. ”The making of,” the repercussions, the aftermath … ? Really fascinating stuff.
2. Kirk Cousins. Plus-250.
Pro Football Focus’ Top 101 NFL players for the 2021 season, which includes postseason performances, ranked Cousins 41st overall and sixth among quarterbacks behind Joe Burrow, Tom Brady, Josh Allen Aaron Rodgers, and Justin Herbert. I don’t agree with that lofty rating. But the Browns’ analytics department – and their head coach – just might. Unless and until the Vikings sign Cousins to a contract extension, he looms as the most likely Mayfield replacement.
3. Jimmy Garoppolo. Plus-400.
I can’t see my analysis on him changing much from this: He’s the best fit, the most available, and the least expensive in contract and trade cost of any quarterback with a comprehensive winning record and Super Bowl experience.
4. Mitchell Trubisky. Plus-500.
This is the first “let’s hedge our bets on Baker” candidate. Signing the 2017 No. 2 overall draft pick on a prove-it deal to challenge Mayfield could be a legit Plan B. The chances of it resulting in an appearance in Super Bowl 57 are remote. More than likely, it’s a tip-off to a new starter in 2023.
5. Rookie draft pick. Plus-600.
Desmond Ridder of Cincinnati is the QB I’m most looking forward to visiting with at the NFL Combine. My initial feeling is he’s an intriguing second-round developmental prospect.
6. Aaron Rodgers. Plus-1000.
The reigning, four-time league MVP moved from No. 9 to No. 6 and his odds plunged from plus-2100. Why? I continue to have the vibe that the Packers and Rodgers will agree to an amicable parting. Price tag will be extremely high. Denver remains the logical destination. Still, the Browns shouldn’t dismiss making a strong pitch to both parties.
7. Russell Wilson. Plus-1500.
Much like Rodgers, this may be a Browns pipe dream. However, I can’t get out of my mind the old rumor that Seahawks GM John Schneider casually dropped a “Hey, buddy boy, whaddya think about … ?” trade proposal with former Green Bay associate John Dorsey involving Wilson prior to the Mayfield draft. The way I heard it, Schneider wasn’t totally joking, though the conversation went nowhere.
8. Derek Carr. Plus-1500.
A $40 million-a-year contract extension and No. 1 draft pick trade price for a career under-.500 QB with one playoff appearance in eight NFL seasons doesn’t sound like something that will pass the analytics algorithm.
9. Matt Ryan. Plus-2000.
To me, Ryan is the closest thing to Matthew Stafford in this QB pool. But wait, he was an MVP (Stafford wasn’t) and played in a Super Bowl (Stafford hadn’t) and flourished in the Stefanski/Shanahan offense (Stafford didn’t). If he had the same desire as Stafford a year ago to seek greener pastures, I would move him much higher up. Alas, Ryan seems much too comfortable in Atlanta to force a move.
10. DeShaun Watson. Plus-2500.
Judging from the way he played in bad Cleveland weather in 2020, I can’t imagine him lifting his no-trade clause to play for the Browns. Meanwhile, whatever happened to those lawyers litigating the 22 civil complaints against Watson? Do they still hold press conferences in Houston?
11. Kyler Murray. Plus-5000.
The diminutive Arizona quarterback appears on this sports book for the first time after reports of mutual disgruntlement over the Cardinals’ season demise. He is listed not as a replacement for Mayfield, his former Oklahoma teammate. Can’t see that happening. But if the Cards were to make a move and part with Murray – fairly unlikely, in my opinion – Mayfield would be a natural candidate to replace him in a reunion with Kliff Kingsbury, the coach who once wronged Mayfield at Texas Tech.
