The heat has turned up on Kevin Stefanski outside the building. But his future will be dictated by the temperature inside the owner's suite. (Cleveland Browns)
Second thoughts: Kevin Stefanski’s penchant for fourth-down plays has become a problem
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland. He has covered the Browns since 1984.
Second thoughts on Browns’ 23-10 loss to Cincinnati Bengals …
1. The cockamamie play-call of Kevin Stefanski to have backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett throw for the end zone on fourth-and-1 from the 25 on the Browns’ opening drive in Cincinnati was wrong for several reasons. A. He eschewed a reasonable shot at three points in a must-win game on the road. It would have been a 43-yard field goal attempt. Cade York is 5 of 6 between 40 and 49 yards this year. B. He asked Brissett to come off the bench cold and execute a pass play of 25 yards. Brissett’s throw for Donovan Peoples-Jones, who was open, was long and uncatchable. C. He took $230 million QB Deshaun Watson off the field when he was gaining a rhythm in his game for the first time. Watson was 3 for 3 for 31 yards during that first series. Why disrupt Watson's rhythm? Is this a way of rewarding Brissett for job well done in his 11 starts, a way of keeping him engaged? Was the fourth-down play a 30th birthday present for Brissett? “There are things that we can do that [Brissett] has been good at in short yardage that we feel gives us an advantage,” Stefanski said Monday. “Obviously, frustrated in the result there, and always looking at what we can do better and what I can do better. That is honestly the idea behind it.” After the game, Stefanski second-guessed himself for not going for the first down instead of the touchdown. “I’ve just got to make sure I give those guys plays that we can go get one yard – that’s really what we’ve got to do,” Stefanski said. So that’s D. He should have gone for the first down if he couldn’t bear the sour taste of a mere three points instead of seven. This brings up another pet peeve of mine. What’s the hurry in going for the end zone? The opening drive was going well. The Browns were possessing the ball for close to five minutes. Why not keep the Cincinnati defense on the field for a few more? Why put Joe Burrow on the field before you really had to? Basic stuff. Alas, too inside-the-box for the Browns.
2. No coach has tried more fourth-down conversions this season than Stefanski. Why can’t he resist going for it on fourth down? We know that analytics mavens heavily favor going for it on fourth down, but Stefanski wouldn't blame the organization’s penchant for fourth-down tries on the nerds. “I think for me, it is just trying to put our guys in position to make a play, stay on the field and convert potential threes into sevens,” he said. “It is a philosophy that I believe in. We are going to try to be aggressive, and I think our players understand that we are trying to be smart while being aggressive.”
3. The Browns have run offensive plays on fourth down 33 times. They’ve converted 18 into first downs. So, those 15 failures essentially are turnovers, or “turned-overs” on downs. “I think you can look at it either way – I think it is a fair question – but you are also looking at opportunities for points in those situations,” he said. Only the Arizona Cardinals have more “turned-overs” this year, with 16 (16 of 32 fourth-down conversions). Stefanski’s .545 conversion rate this season on fourth downs actually is the best of his three seasons. The Browns' conversion rate was .333 in 2020 (8 of 24) and .414 in 2021 (12 of 29). Over the past three seasons, only the Detroit Lions have more fourth-down attempts (89) than the Browns (86). The Cardinals also have 86. The Lions have made 45 of 89 for a .505 conversion rate. The Cardinals are 50 of 86 for .581. The Browns have made 38 of 86 for a .441 conversion rate. Among the top five teams in fourth-down attempts, the Browns are the only team with a sub-.500 conversion rate. Thus, over Stefanski’s three seasons, he has 48 “turned-overs” on downs – most in the league. The Lions are next with 44, followed by the Chargers and Eagles with 39.
4. Bill Belichick and Andy Reid arguably are the best two head coaches in the NFL. Belichick is 23 of 43 (.534) on fourth-down conversions the past three years. Reid is 27 of 41 (.658). Other coaches of note: Baltimore’s John Harbaugh is 38 of 61 (.622). Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin is 30 of 59 (.508). Cincinnati’s Zac Taylor is 34 of 57 (.596). Stefanski’s .441 mark is enough of a sample size to dispute that he is “putting his guys in position to make a play.”
5. This has been a challenging year for Stefanski since March, when Jimmy Haslam wrote the check for Watson. Aside from the unique challenge of managing the Brissett-Watson dynamic, Stefanski’s game management issues have contributed to the team’s disappointing 5-8 record. Nobody in the organization saw a double-digit loss season coming. There are also the failures to steady the destructive defensive and special teams inconsistencies, plus the relentless penalties. The Browns were called for nine against the Bengals, raising their season total to 83 – tied with the Giants and Seahawks for sixth-most in the NFL. All of which is turning up the heat on Stefanski outside the building. Stefanski isn’t one to let you see him sweat. “I think all of that goes with the territory,” he said. “As you can imagine, I kind of keep the focus on what I can control, what is going on in our building and those type of things. Always looking for ways to improve. Always looking for ways to put our guys in position to succeed. That is what I have to do.”
6. After Tony Fields was flagged for blatantly roughing Cincinnati punter Drue Christman, giving the Bengals new life on their first scoring drive – the game-winner, as it turned out – the CBS cameras captured the rare scene of Stefanski chewing out a player. It was the most emotion seen from Stefanski in three years as Browns coach. Good to see. The problem was this: Fields was sent right back out on the field on defense on the next play. No accountability, there.
