Kevin Stefanski has to decide if a healthy Case Keenum gives him a better chance to beat Denver than an unhealthy Baker Mayfield. (Cleveland Browns)
Second thoughts: Browns approach pivotal point of season with hard decision on starting Case Keenum
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
Second thoughts on Browns 37-14 loss to the Arizona Chargers …
1. The Browns are learning the hard way how fleeting success can be in the NFL. One month you’re a Super Bowl contender, the next the bailing buckets are working overtime to keep the season from submerging. Ask the Baltimore Ravens when they lost their top three running backs and a starting cornerback, lost their first game, then lost their starting left tackle and another lineman. Ask the Kansas City Chiefs when they lost three of four games and then lost their starting running back and dominant defensive lineman. This is the NFL. Sometimes the injuries never stop and the season goes irretrievably south, like it has for the San Francisco 49ers in two of the last three years. Sometimes the injuries slow down enough for the team to grab hold of its season and rise stronger from the adversity. Again, ask the Ravens (5-1) and the Chiefs (3-3), who have recovered. The Browns are at a point in the season where they have enough healthy players to choose which direction they head. They can’t control the injuries, but they can control their awful execution on offense and defense. “I think this is a pivotal point in the season,” safety John Johnson said of the short week leading to the Denver game on Thursday night. “I think this is a huge game to win, get back on track going into the division games. It’s definitely a must-win.”
2. Coaches have to present a stern face in front of their players, media and fans for any hope to navigate the troubled waters ahead. But Kevin Stefanski was as grim talking about his list of injured players on Monday as he was at any time during last season’s COVID-19 outbreaks, which nearly derailed the 2020 season. The difference is these key injuries are longer-term than the COVID casualties that sprang up a year ago. Stefanski described the injuries to running back Kareem Hunt (calf) and linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (high ankle) as “significant” and all but confirmed NFL Media reports of 4-to-6 weeks out for both players. As for the status for Thursday night of quarterback Baker Mayfield (left shoulder), receiver Jarvis Landry (knee), receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (right shoulder), running back Nick Chubb (calf), and offensive tackles Jedrick Wills (ankle) and Jack Conklin (knee), Stefanski sounded sincere when he pleaded, “I really do not know, is the truth. I have to see how Baker and all these guys respond in the next 24 hours.”
3. If ever there was a game to sit Mayfield, this would be it. Since he tore the labrum in his left shoulder in the first half of the Houston game, Mayfield has been spotty, at best, and mostly not good enough. The inherent risk in playing with his injury was evident in the Arizona game. He reinjured the shoulder once, and then it popped out without contact later in the contest. From a distance and without access to Mayfield’s MRI, of course, Dr. David Chao, aka ProFootballDoc, believes this injury is more severe. On Monday, Chao said on The Morning After podcast, “No question he re-dislocated his shoulder. This one might have been, quote, ‘more severe’ than the last time in a slightly different position. Expect an MRI and expect a bigger labral tear this time. And if he’s not careful, the shoulder will continue to come out. But he’s tough. He came back into the game, tightened up that harness. He’s got a Thursday game, quick turnaround. My guess is he’ll make it. But … when you extend plays, that’s where the danger is. And it was the strip-sack fumble with the ball in one hand … and he’s trying to make a play. But that’s where your injuries become vulnerable. If you either get rid of the ball or have two hands on the ball, your arm’s not out there and there isn’t the strip sack. But that’s part of what makes him great. It’s just a matter of how to get the balance.”
4. It wouldn’t be easy to transition to the backup quarterback on a short week without much work on the field other than walk-throughs. But the situation is tailor-made for Case Keenum. He knows the Stefanski offense, of course, but also has a good knowledge of the Broncos, for whom he played in 2018. Yes, there’s been a coaching change since then from Vance Joseph to Vic Fangio, but Keenum is still familiar with what the Broncos’ defense is all about, having played against Fangio’s Bears while with Stefanski in Minnesota. It’s not an ideal situation, but you’re not paying Keenum $6 million just to watch over the quarterback RV in the back parking lot. Keenum actually ranks eighth among QBs in base salary in 2021. Stefanski really needs to have made this decision by Monday afternoon so his coaches can prepare the team for Keenum. I don’t even think the decision should be based on the availability of the starting offensive tackles.
5. I thought Stefanski was great last year in game management. Not so much, this year. It seems his whole game plan is shredded when the offense sputters early and the Browns fall behind. I think he has to adjust to the injuries on offense. For one thing, he needs to tap the breaks on the fourth-down gambles. Yes, three points aren’t as good as seven, but they’re better than nothing. Especially when down, 7-0, early in the game, as the Browns were Sunday. Stefanski says he’s not being aggressive “just to be aggressive.” Well, it sure looks like it. I’m not saying to play for field goals; the third down play-calls should be aggressive. But the gambles on fourth down have become counter-productive. The Browns are now 6 of 15 on fourth-down gambles. A 40 percent success rate diminishes the returns of the gamble. The only team worse with a minimum of 10 attempts is winless Detroit (4 of 13). Failing on fourth down essentially is an offensive turnover. So if you add the Browns’ nine fourth-down failures to their turnover total, they would have an adjusted total of 16 giveaways, which would tie Kansas City for league-worst. “We have not been good on fourth down,” Stefanski said. “It is frustrating. It is another one that we have to fix. We have not done a good job. I have to get guys open is the truth.”
6. At the least, defensive coordinator Joe Woods began the season “under the microscope” because of all the investment the Browns made on defensive players in free agency and the draft. Scrap the microscope. Woods now is “on the hot seat.” In the last two games, Woods’ defense has yielded 84 points, 18 of 32 conversions on third and fourth down, and eight touchdown passes. Defenders have been so out of position that six of the eight passing TDs have been uncontested, with no defender in the vicinity. With nobody in position to make a PBU, turnovers are out of the question. The Browns’ four measly turnovers rank tied for 27th in the NFL. The defense looks uncoordinated, which is probably the worst thing you can say about a coordinator’s work. So far, Woods’ Big Dime -- three safeties and two linebackers -- has been a colossal failure because the safeties have been the ones mostly caught out of position. It’s no coincidence that the three safeties – Johnson, Ronnie Harrison and Grant Delpit – hardly practiced together in training camp and never played together in preseason, mostly because of Delpit’s hamstring injury.
7. In the interest of positivity, we should point out that two players had good games v. Arizona. Receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones had career highs with 101 yards receiving and two touchdowns on four catches, including the 57-yard post-up grab of Mayfield’s Hail Mary heave. The two-TD game was the first for a Browns wide receiver since Beckham had two against Dallas last year. And punter Jamie Gillan had a badly-needed bounce-back game with punts of 54 and 52 yards, with a net of 49 yards. He out-punted the great Andy Lee (50. 5 gross and 36 net on two punts).
