Kyler Murray makes the Cardinals' offense go, but head coach Kliff Kingsbury won't be there Sunday to call the plays because of COVID-19. (Arizona Republic)
Whose absence will affect Browns-Cardinals more: Nick Chubb or Kliff Kingsbury?
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
Four downs on Browns (3-2) v. Arizona Cardinals (5-0)
First down: Nick Chubb not immune to soft-tissue epidemic.
Despite being at the vanguard of advanced analytics and sports science, the Browns continue to be plagued by mundane soft tissue injuries. Perhaps it’s because they didn’t play regulars during the preseason. Who knows? The big victim this week was Nick Chubb, who will miss his first game of the season because of a calf injury suffered some time during the Chargers game. So 2017 NFL rushing champion Kareem Hunt moves in to the No. 1 back role. D’Ernest Johnson might get his first reps in reserve with rookie Demetric Felton available for the passing game. Hunt leads the Browns with five touchdowns, but is not 100 percent, having missed one day of practice and been limited the rest of the week with wrist and knee injuries of his own. The Browns are better equipped than any NFL team to replace its No. 1 back. But when Chubb missed four games last year with an MCL sprain, Hunt struggled through a shoulder injury and rushed for a mere 72, 40, 76 and 66 yards – and had two receiving touchdowns – as the Browns went 2-2.
Second down: Kyler the Magnificent.
After Baker Mayfield restored Oklahoma football to national prominence in 2016-17, his backup, Kyler Murray, took the baton and followed Mayfield’s footsteps as a Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall NFL pick in 2018. Three years later, Murray and Mayfield meet for the second time as pros (Murray won the first as a rookie) and Murray is an early MVP candidate as quarterback of the NFL’s only undefeated team. At 5-10 1/8, Murray unofficially is the shortest quarterback drafted in the first round in the NFL’s modern era. His quick release and whip of an arm (75 percent accuracy, 10 TD v. 4 INT) are overshadowed by his dynamism in the pocket and quick acceleration when leaving the pocket. He has taken his game to a higher level in his third season in Kliff Kingsbury’s air-raid offense. Browns safety John Johnson aptly called Murray “a roadrunner … he gets so quick so fast.” Johnson said he received a tip this week from Browns backup QB Case Keenum, who starred collegiately in a similar offense at Houston when Kingsbury was QB coach. “Free rushers at him is kind of what he wants,” Johnson said Keenum told him. “He just dances around people. You have to tempo your rush and try to keep him in the pocket. He’s a shorter stature guy, so you make it hard for him to see, especially with our D-line, they’re so big.”
Third down: The JOK factor.
When the Browns deep-dived on their defensive needs following their 2020 playoff season, they concluded that speed on the field should be their top priority. Yes, they planned for the return from Achilles surgery of safety Grant Delpit, their 2020 second-round pick, to be a major factor. But the big dose of foot speed and quickness would come from linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, their second-round pick in 2021. “The more that offenses change, they spread you out and try to create matchups,” coordinator Joe Woods said. “Defensively, you want to try and create the matchups we want. Now, we have a guy like JOK and Grant Delpit. You can put more speed on the field and you feel like now you are putting those advantages, in terms of the matchups, on your side.” Woods’ ‘Big Dime’ defensive package – involving Delpit as a third safety and JOK roaming in the middle of the field – seems to have been concocted for Arizona’s “basketball-on-grass” offense. Murray’s four-deep array of receivers – DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, and 4.39-in-the-40 rookie Rondale Moore – will stress the Browns’ cornerbacks, who should be healthy to go with the possible exception of Greg Newsome. But JOK figures to be the player to “spy” on Murray and prevent him from creating big plays with his feet. It’s not an overstatement to say JOK was drafted exactly for opponents like this. “Coach Stefanski always says the next game is the biggest game,” JOK said. “So, yes, if you’re asking me if it’s the most important game, and I feel it’s my game. [But] the next game will be that exact same feeling.”
Fourth down: Cardinals COVID outbreak.
The Cardinals were one of the first organizations to declare themselves 100 percent vaccinated, but it hasn’t prevented a COVID-19 outbreak on the team this week that will force them to be without Kingsbury and quarterbacks coach Cam Turner. Also missing the trip will be top pass rusher Chandler Jones, defensive lineman Zach Allen and GM Steve Keim. Game-day operations for the Cardinals are expected to be shared by defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, who was head coach of the Denver Broncos in 2017-18, and special teams coordinator Jeff Rodgers. The offense figures to be placed in the hands of offensive line coach/run game coordinator Sean Kugler. The Browns defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 48-37, in an AFC wild card game in January with Stefanski and two assistant coaches quarantined in their homes. A big difference for the Cardinals is that Kingsbury just tested positive on Friday, so they haven’t had the whole week to prepare for his absence.
The pick: Browns 26, Cardinals 24.
My record: 4-1.
