Untested Chris Naggar will make his NFL debut in Green Bay as the Browns' kicker after Chase McLaughlin tested positive for COVID-19. (Cleveland Browns)
For Browns, winning their division is less of a miracle than winning in Green Bay
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
Four downs on Browns (7-7) v. Green Bay Packers (11-3)
First down: COVID carousel spinning hard.
In a short week following their 16-14 loss Monday night to the Las Vegas Raiders, the Browns realized major net gains on the COVID scoreboard. The following players were activated off the COVID/reserve list since Tuesday: Safety Grant Delpit, offensive tackle James Hudson, tight end Austin Hooper, linebacker Jacob Phillips, receiver Jarvis Landry, defensive end Ifeadi Odenigbo, quarterback Baker Mayfield, quarterback Case Keenum, and coach Kevin Stefanski. Mayfield and Keenum joined the team in Green Bay on Saturday morning after they officially clear protocols. The following players were banished to COVID/reserve during the week: Cornerback Greg Newsome, center JC Tretter, kicker Chase McLaughlin and defensive tackle Jordan Elliott. Also, the Browns declared safety John Johnson (hamstring) out and placed defensive end Takk McKinley (Achilles) on injured reserve. As for the Packers, their major net gain was nose tackle Kenny Clark, and they lost to the COVID list receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Second down: Unraveling the division race.
A loss to the Packers would drop the Browns below .500 (7-8) for the first time in Stefanski’s 31 games as coach except when they were 0-1 to start the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Believe it or not, however, a loss in Green Bay WOULD NOT eliminate the Browns from the AFC playoff field or from STILL winning the AFC North division. A victory would help immensely. A loss would leave the Browns two games behind the division leader – whoever wins the Cincinnati-Baltimore game on Sunday. For the Browns to win the division with a 9-8 record, these things must happen: Browns have to win their last two games at Pittsburgh and home v. Cincinnati; 2. Cincinnati would have to also lose either to Baltimore or Kansas City; 3. Baltimore would have to lose twice among games against Cincinnati, the Rams and Pittsburgh; 4. Pittsburgh would have to also lose to either Kansas City or Baltimore. If everything went right for the Browns – even with a loss in Green Bay – this is how the Browns' fantasy finish would look. 1. Browns, 9-8; 2. Bengals, 9-8; 3. Ravens, 9-8; 4. Steelers, 8-8-1. The tie-breaker among three teams in a division is W-L record involving only those teams (Pittsburgh not included, in this case). The Browns would win the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record v. Cincinnati and Baltimore; the Bengals and Ravens would be 2-2.
Third down: A Christmas miracle?
The Packers are the only team not to lose a game at home this season and are 20-2 in Lambeau Field in three seasons under coach Mike LaFleur. They’re vying for the top seed and first-round bye in the NFC playoff field. So, even at full strength, this would be the toughest assignment of the season for the Browns. Now, consider the following: They still have 12 players out with COVID, including seven starters and two other prominent players. They will play with a center (Nick Harris) making his first NFL start at the position and his first appearance on offense this season. They will play with a kicker off the practice squad (Chris Naggard) who has never kicked in an NFL regular-season or preseason game and kicked only one year collegiately at Southern Methodist. If Myles Garrett is healthy enough to go, his complementary ends will be Porter Gustin, Joe Jackson, Ifeadi Odenigbo and Curtis Weaver – none of whom probably would be on the active roster normally. Baker Mayfield will be transported to Green Bay on Christmas morning via private jet and would rejoin his teammates for the first time since testing positive on Dec. 15 and play without having practiced or participated in a team walk-through in that time. For all of those reasons, defeating the Packers in Lambeau Field on this day would qualify as the greatest upset in Browns expansion history, and probably would qualify as the second biggest upset in franchise history behind the Browns winning the NFL Championship over the Baltimore Colts as 7-point underdogs at home in 1964.
Fourth down: Formula for a miracle.
So how can the Browns do the impossible? Start with a heavy dose of running the ball to grind the clock and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. The Packers are 11th in rushing defense, yielding 107.9 yards a game on the ground. But they have had their bad days, giving up 171 in a 38-3 loss in Game 1 to New Orleans, 195 in a 24-10 win over Washington, 137 in a 45-30 win over Chicago and 143 in a 31-30 win over Baltimore. The Browns’ special teams also would have to make a rare significant contribution. The Packers’ special teams have somehow overcome disastrous days against the Bears (allowing a 97-yard punt return for a touchdown, two kickoff returns over 40 yards, and bobbling an onside kick) and Bengals (missing three field goals before making the game-winner in overtime). Thirdly, the Browns’ defense will have to intensify its recent surge of turnovers (13 takeaways and two defensive touchdowns over the last six games). If they succeeded on all three of these counts, they could have a fighting chance.
The pick: Packers 31, Browns 20.
My record: 7-7.
