Myles Garrett could be the difference between similarly rated Browns and Raiders. (Getty Images)
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
Four downs on Browns (5-2) v. Las Vegas Raiders (3-3)
First down: The Garrett Factor.
The Raiders score 28.5 points a game and give up 32.8; the Browns score 28.6 points a game and give up 31.6. So why are the Browns 5-2 and the Raiders 3-3? Yes, strength of schedule has something to do with it. But a closer look at the teams reveals some distinct differences. The Browns’ maligned defense leads the NFL with 14 takeaways; the Raiders are last with three. The Browns’ pass rush has 18 sacks; the Raiders have seven. And the Browns have a game-changing player on defense in Myles Garrett, and the Raiders have none. Garrett leads the NFL with nine sacks, is tied for first with four forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. Garrett’s pass pressure has influenced at least two interceptions and an intentional grounding call in the end zone for a safety. Raiders coach Jon Gruden said, “This guy forces fumbles. He causes other sacks for other people. He is good against the run. He bats passes down. His arms are up in the air. He forces inaccurate balls. He has a factor about him. His presence is felt a lot. He can play left end, right end or they can push him inside, and he is a factor wherever he plays. I wish we had Garrett.” In simplest terms, the biggest difference between the Browns and Raiders could be one player – Myles Garrett. Put him on the Raiders and the records would be reversed.
Second down: The long and short of it.
Derek Carr is blessed with two diverse passing targets that pose particular problems to the Browns’ 30th-ranked passing defense (the Raiders are 28th, by the way). The deep man is rookie receiver Henry Ruggs of Alabama, whose 4.27 40 time was the fastest at the 2020 NFL Combine and made him the first receiver taken in the 2020 draft. Ruggs had receptions of 46 and 72 yards in the Raiders’ 40-32 win over the Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Ruggs is averaging 26.5 yards on eight catches in the four games he’s played. Carr’s go-to guy is tight end Darren Waller. Waller has six 100-yard receiving games in 22 games with the Raiders. The 6-6, 255-pounder runs like a receiver and blocks like a tight end. The inside-out combination of receiving threats will be the biggest challenge facing the Browns’ defense. “When you can be a threat on the inside it really takes the defense’s attention towards you,” said Kevin Stefanski. “If that is the case, there is safety that is helping on the inside and he can’t help on the outside.” Denzel Ward and Terrance Mitchell probably would share time covering Ruggs. Waller could draw the attention of a linebacker in short areas and a safety further downfield. In any case, the Raiders' array of pass targets, which include the rejuvenated Nelson Algohor and slot receiver Hunter Renfrow, really accentuates the Browns' problems this year at deep safety.
Third down: Life begins without OBJ.
Baker Mayfield isn’t likely to complete 21 passes in a row again – like he did in Cincinnati -- solely because the pressure to throw to Odell Beckham Jr. has been removed by Beckham’s unfortunate season-ending knee injury. But Mayfield’s stunningly accurate passing day against the Bengals strengthened the case that Mayfield is a more confident quarterback when freed to distribute the ball to where his reads take him and not burdened by keeping Beckham engaged. In Cincinnati, Mayfield was 15 of 17 throwing to tight ends Harrison Bryant and David Njoku, and receivers Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Those are the names to watch going forward, but don’t think for a moment that Beckham’s absence won’t also result in a resurgence of Jarvis Landry as Mayfield’s most dependable receiver -- sore ribs willing.
Fourth down: The autumn wind.
Forecasts for Sunday call for 100 percent chance of rain with 30 mph wind gusts. “It looks like it is going to be very windy on Sunday so it is definitely going to be part of the elements,” Stefanski said. “That is part of our game and part of our advantage playing on Lake Erie. We are well aware of it and have to make any adjustments. It is something that we are thinking about really throughout the week.” On the surface, the forecast would seem to narrow the offensive strategies to running the ball, which favors the Nick Chubb- and Wyatt Teller-less Browns (157 yards a game to the Raiders’ 113.5). But as the late, great narrator John Facenda intones in the Battle Hymn of the Raider Nation, “The Autumn Wind is a raider / Pillaging just for fun. / He'll knock you 'round and upside down. / And laugh when he's conquered and won.” The Browns must make the autumn wind their own.
Prediction: Browns 32, Raiders 29.
My record: 6-1.