Kevin Stefanski has his team in the thick of the AFC wild card race at the halfway point, but there is much work to be done for the Browns to reach their playoff goal. (Cleveland Browns)
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
You can cite all the advanced statistics (aka analytics) you want to measure the Browns through their first eight games. But don’t bother overanalyzing it.
They’re 5-3.
They’re better than five 2019 playoff teams – Patriots (2-5), Texans (1-6), Vikings (2-5), 49ers (4-4), and any team in the NFC East.
Considering the factors against them before the season started – an all-new coaching staff trying to implement new systems without the benefit of a typical offseason program and no preseason games, and an onslaught of freak injuries in training camp – anyone would have signed up for 5-3 at the bye week.
They are one of five teams vying for three AFC wild card berths. Right now, those teams line up this way:
If the season ended today, the Browns would be the No. 7 seed and play the No. 2 seed, the Super Bowl-champion Chiefs, in the first round of the AFC playoffs.
Alas, the Browns are only halfway there. To reach the finish line, they need better luck on the injury front and need to continue to be diligent in following Covid-19 protocols.
They also need to improve at each position group.
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield has never been micro-managed in his football career like this season under Kevin Stefanski.
Besides changing his footwork and adapting to a play-action passing system requiring more snaps under center than in shotgun, Mayfield has had his gunslinger mentality neutered. Stefanski turned him into a game manager. To his credit, Mayfield has not resisted, but he is undeniably uncomfortable in stretches of games.
Mayfield has been fairly inconsistent – sometimes from quarter to quarter. He played the worst game of his career (against Pittsburgh) and the best game (second Cincinnati game) in back-to-back weeks. He’s had good first halfs followed by bad second halfs.
Mayfield is at his best commanding an up-tempo passing offense. But he’ll only be in that position in Stefanski’s structured system when behind – like in the second Cincinnati game.
Mayfield grew up idolizing Brett Favre because of the fearless way he played the game. He has to accept the fact that style doesn’t fly in Stefanski’s offense.
Running back
It’s pretty clear that Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are a unique tandem that makes the Browns’ running game something special.
Without Chubb, Hunt has played hurt for several weeks. The bye week benefits both. When Chubb and Hunt are healthy, their toughness spreads throughout the team.
Wide receiver
Odell Beckham Jr. is lost for the season and Jarvis Landry is beat up with at least one broken rib. This should force Mayfield to spread the passing load to Rashard Higgins, KhaDarel Hodge and Donovan Peoples-Jones, and also to the tight ends and backs.
Landry still was not fully recovered from offseason hip surgery when his rib problems began, and then worsened with repeated punishing hits. For that reason, GM Andrew Berry might opt to bring in a veteran receiver, after all. If he doesn’t, Mayfield has to get the other receivers involved and not lean on Landry, as he did in the Raiders game.
Tight end
Austin Hooper is expected back from his appendectomy for the Houston game. He and rookie Harrison Bryant need to be incorporated more into the passing game as inclement weather affects game plans in November and December.
The fate of David Njoku finally will be resolved as the NFL trade deadline hits 4 p.m. on Tuesday. If Njoku stays, I see him fading as only a casual target the rest of the year.
Offensive line
Mauler right guard Wyatt Teller has been sorely missed. With Chubb, he’ll restore toughness and physicality to the running game.
When the line is at full strength, the foundation of the offense is in great shape.
Defensive line
Olivier Vernon’s first two sacks of the season in the Raiders game was a hopeful sign that Myles Garrett will receive some much-needed complementary help over the last eight games. God knows he can’t do it all.
Garrett practiced through an ankle injury and then suffered a knee injury in the Raiders game. His availability is positively essential for the Browns to make the playoffs. Stefanski said he expected Garrett to be good to go for the Houston game.
The tackles were “pushed back” by the Raiders’ offensive line. The Browns better hope that was a credit to the Raiders and not a sign of things to come.
Linebacker
In the offseason, the Browns committed to the young legs of Mack Wilson, Sione Takitaki and rookie Jacob Phillips. Injuries set back Wilson and Phillips, and Takitaki has been a virtual nonentity.
Veteran additions B.J. Goodson and Malcolm Smith have been the only consistent producers in this position group, and they’re not good enough to affect games.
Berry chose not to offer home-grown free agent Joe Schobert a contract in the offseason. Schobert may not have fit the profile of Joe Woods’ defense – not fast enough – but you have to believe the Browns would be better with him. Berry can still correct that mistake with a trade, but time is running out.
Cornerback
Denzel Ward is having his best season in his third year. Terrance Mitchell was an immediate upgrade over Greedy Williams, whose second season is all but ruined by a shoulder injury. But it appears Mitchell is plateauing as a starter. Kevin Johnson seems to be getting more comfortable as the nickel back after his freak liver laceration injury in training camp.
With M.J. Stewart and Tavierre Thomas in reserve, I don’t think this position group as whole is a problem area. But it's certainly not a strength.
Safety
Woods envisioned a trio of veteran stop-gaps Karl Joseph and Andrew Sendejo joining rookie Grant Delpit to field a 4-2-5 base defense. Delpit’s season-ending Achilles injury forced a change of plans.
Sendejo, 32, has gamely been on the field for 98 percent of the defensive snaps, but the value of his familiarity with the defensive system as the free safety has been undermined by declining skills. Woods doesn’t seem willing to try September acquisition Ronnie Harrison or second-year Sheldrick Redwine in Sendejo’s place as the deep safety.
Harrison, a disrupter as a strong safety, was a great pickup by Berry and figures to be paired with Delpit as the future starters.
But unless Woods bites the bullet and considers a change at free, I see the back end of the defense continuing to be a very large problem that quarterbacks DeShaun Watson, Carson Wentz, Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Jackson and Ben Roethlisberger will exploit in coming weeks.