No great defense has fazed Patrick Mahomes so far. (USAToday)
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
MIAMI BEACH, FL
Four downs on San Francisco 49ers (15-3) v. Kansas City Chiefs (14-4)
First down: Where’s Bill and Tom?
Super Bowl 54 is the first in four years without the New England Patriots, the second in six years and just the 10th in the last 19 years without Bill Belichick and Tom Brady dominating the week. That alone makes it a refreshing change. But it could go down as one of the most entertaining games of the 54. Oddsmakers set the Chiefs as 1- or 1 ½-point favorites. The only pick’em Super Bowl in history was 49 between the Patriots and Seahawks, won by New England, 28-24, and it wasn’t clinched until a Patriots interception at the goal line in the final seconds. This title game features two of the league’s premier offenses, led by two of the league’s premier quarterbacks, orchestrated by two of the league’s premier play-callers. They pile on points in vastly different ways – Kansas City by air and San Francisco by land – but both offenses are the most creative and inventive in the league today. If the bromide “defense wins championships” holds true, San Francisco has the decided edge on that side of the ball. But no defense has stopped Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the 2018 NFL MVP. In his career, Mahomes is 7-0 against defenses ranked in the top 10.
Second down: Meeting of the minds.
Coaches Andy Reid of the Chiefs and Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers are the pre-eminent offensive coaches in the league, and both load up their offenses with speedy play-makers. But that’s where their similarities end. Reid, 61, is the new-age play-caller who conjures pass plays in his sleep and copies them down when he awakes. He attacks the beginning of the game with ferocity to build a lead. But if circumstances put his team behind, no deficit is too great. The Chiefs made up a 24-point deficit against Houston with a barrage of 31 pass plays v. 6 runs while scoring seven consecutive touchdowns. The Chiefs called pass plays 61.5 percent of the time in the regular season and 60.3 percent in the playoffs. Shanahan, 40, has been a champion of the run game, but it’s not accurate to call him a throwback to the 1970s. He mixes the speed of three different backs with creative blocking schemes immersed in pass formations. The result is a run game that steamrolls opponents. Shanahan called run plays 49.2 percent of the time in regular season, but he amped that up to an astounding 74.7 percent in the two playoff games. Why? Because it was unstoppable.
Third down: Don’t sleep on Jimmy G.
At 24, Mahomes can become the youngest quarterback to win a Super Bowl. He missed two games this year with a knee injury and that cost him a decent chance to win a second consecutive MVP award. He may very well be the best player in the NFL. In two playoff wins, he’s thrown eight touchdowns without an interception and has a 131.5 passer rating. San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo, meanwhile, has gladly taken a back seat to Shanahan’s run game in the playoffs. Garoppolo attempted only eight passes (completing six) in a convincing win over the Packers in the NFC Championship, making him the first quarterback since Bob Griese in 1973 to lead his team to a Super Bowl with fewer than 10 pass attempts in the conference title game. Garoppolo chuckles at questions about the frustration of not “airing it out” in the biggest games. “When you are moving the ball at eight yards per carry, do you really want to pass it?” he said this week. “Whatever it takes to win.” San Francisco’s running success has obscured Garoppolo’s ability to light it up if need be. Garoppolo led the league in percentage of third-down passes that went for first downs. He led fourth-quarter comebacks in rollicking wins of 36-26 over the Cardinals, 34-31 over the Rams, and 48-46 over the Saints.
Fourth down: Somebody’s redemption.
Both coaches carry chips on their shoulder as they attempt to win their first Super Bowl. Before this year, Reid was 11-13 in postseason games and just 1-4 in conference championship games. He lost his only other Super Bowl appearance with the Eagles, 15 years ago, 24-21 to Belichick’s Patriots. Shanahan’s career low point was as offensive coordinator of the Falcons when they blew a 28-3 halftime lead to the Patriots three years ago and lost in overtime. Ironically, given his penchant to run the ball this year, Shanahan was excoriated for calling pass plays late in the fourth quarter instead of eating clock on the ground. Matt Ryan lost the ball on a strip sack on one series and then on the next was sacked out of field-goal range to give the Patriots the opportunity to force overtime.
Prediction: 49ers, 38-35.
My record: 10-6.