The goal of having two back exceed 1,000 yards rushing is still attainable for the Browns, but it comes after the goal of making the playoffs. (DraftKingsNation)
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Editor’s note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
Four downs on Browns (10-4) v. New York Jets (1-13)
First down: Christmas greetings.
To Browns fans, it’s the holiday gift that arrives late and unexpectedly. A win by the Browns on Sunday, coupled with a loss by one of three teams, can present their fans with a playoff appearance for the first time in 18 years. Not only can the Browns end the longest post-season drought in the NFL, they can also set up an epic Game 16 finale against arch-rival Pittsburgh with the AFC North title on the line. And then the possibilities get even juicier – the Steelers returning to FirstEnergy Stadium for a first-round playoff game, or the equally hated Ravens coming back for the first-ever post-season matchup of Browns past and present. But first things first.
Second down: What has to happen.
The teams affecting the Browns’ playoff clinching are Miami (at Las Vegas on Saturday night), Indianapolis (at Pittsburgh), and the Giants (at Baltimore). A combination of Browns win and loss by any of the three teams clinches the Browns’ post-season berth. Now, if the Colts lose to Pittsburgh, the Steelers (11-3) would clinch the AFC North title – so you might say the Browns can’t lose on that game no matter the outcome. Pittsburgh must lose, however, for the Browns to play for the division title. What happens if the Browns win, but also the Dolphins, Colts and Ravens win? Amazingly – almost unfairly -- the possibility would exist for the Browns to be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss the following week to the Steelers. In that horrifying scenario, the Browns would finish 11-5 and would lose the multi-team AFC wild-card tie-breaker to the Colts, Dolphins and Ravens – assuming they all won their finales. (Week 17 matchups: Colts at home v. Jacksonville, Dolphins at Buffalo, and Ravens at Cincinnati). The only teams in NFL history to go 11-5 and miss the playoffs are the 1985 Denver Broncos and 2008 New England Patriots. Obviously, a week leading up to this Week 17 scenario would be excruciating – par for the course as the 2020 calendar year comes to a close.
Third down: Message delivered.
The Jets did Kevin Stefanski a magnificent favor by upsetting the Rams last week, 23-20, to end their season-long winless streak at 13 games. Coupled with Cincinnati’s equally improbable upset of the Steelers, 27-17, on Monday Night Football, Stefanski was able to grab his team’s attention that on any given Sunday (or Monday), any NFL team can win, or lose. “They played like a team that was trying to do anything and everything they could to get that victory, and I think that is the team we are going to face this week,” Stefanski said during the week. “I let our guys know that. They do know that.” On Wednesday, Stefanski put his team through its final full-padded practice of the regular season. By choosing to use his last available padded practice (per CBA rules) on the Jets, rather than saving it for the Steelers the following week, Stefanski was reinforcing the message that no game is more important than the one against the 1-13 Jets.
Fourth down: Sprint to the finish.
An understated goal of the Browns’ running backs room was to push both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt over 1,000 rushing yards on the season. With two games to go, Chubb is at 931 yards and Hunt at 793. Obviously, making the playoffs is the much larger team goal. Moreover, Stefanski’s loosening of the handcuffs on quarterback Baker Mayfield since the bye week has resulted in the Browns’ offensive surge and Mayfield’s recent ascent. But it’s very possible to achieve both goals – making the playoffs and getting the twin 1,000s. The Jets rank a respectable 14th in run defense, and the Steelers are eighth. If Stefanski follows the form he established from Game 1, he would use Mayfield’s passing to build a nice lead on the Jets and then let his offensive line and running backs pummel them into submission the second half. The Browns’ offensive line could feature two first-time starters this season – Kendall Lamm at left tackle and rookie Nick Harris at right guard. Lamm would play for Jedrick Wills (Covid reserve) and Harris for Wyatt Teller (ankle) and top backup Chris Hubbard (knee).
Prediction: Browns 32, Jets 10.
My record: 8-6.