The Browns have to win games like this, against the AFC South-leading Titans coached by Akron native, former OSU star and Bill Belichick-disciple Mike Vrabel. (Boston Herald)
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Editor’s note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
Four downs on Browns (8-3) v. Tennessee Titans (8-3)
First down: Show (us) time.
A Browns’ win in Nashville, TN clinches an above-.500 record for only the third time in 22 years of their expansion era and keeps the top spot among the three AFC wild card berths. Their season under a first-year coaching staff has been a success by any measure. Yet national love has not come. To their credit, the Browns have not played the “no respect” card. Here’s why: They are 1-3 against teams with winning records. And in their 7-0 record against teams with losing records, five have been by five points or fewer. Earning respect might not be an objective of Kevin Stefanski, but it can be done over the next five games. Starting with the Titans, the Browns can avenge three beat-downs that grounded them and made others slow to embrace them as legit contenders. The Titans won, 43-13, in the 2019 season-opener; the Ravens won, 38-6, in the 2020 season-opener; and the Steelers won, 38-7, five games later. The crushing losses to their division rivals account for the Browns’ minus-21 point differential this season. They’re the only team in the projected seven-team AFC playoff field with a negative point differential.
Second down: Lowering the boom.
Last week, CBS analyst Boomer Esiason opined the Browns should make the playoffs, but they don’t have a chance to beat Pittsburgh or Kansas City in a post-season game because “they don’t have a passing game.” While the Derrick Henry v. Nick Chubb heavyweight bout is the marquee matchup in Nashville, the Ryan Tannehill v. Baker Mayfield throwing dual is an interesting undercard. Tannehill is an example of what consistently solid quarterback play in the wide-zone, play-action scheme can mean to the overall offense. With Tannehill playing to a quarterback passer rating of 106.7 (65% completions, 23 touchdowns, four interceptions), the Titans rank fifth in scoring at 29.5 points per game. With Mayfield playing to a rating of 92.3 (61.2%, 17 TD, seven INT), the Browns rank 18th in scoring at 24.1 points per game. Granted, the Browns’ passing numbers were adversely affected by three bad-weather games. Although both teams will seek to manage the game with their powerful rushing attacks, the Titans have rolled up 30 or more points six times. Beating them in optimal weather (forecast: 48 degrees, no wind) may require the Browns to have one of Mayfield’s better passing days.
Third down: Myles climbs back.
In his first Zoom interview since being sacked by Covid-19, Myles Garrett said the coronavirus “kicked my butt … now I am back.” In the nick of time for a December run to perhaps Garrett’s first taste of post-season football. Garrett’s suspension in 2019 kept him off the field for the final six games. A 1-4 record in December without Garrett extinguished faint – but flickering – playoff hopes. Now the Browns are in much better position, and Garrett is in much better health after a two-week layoff. While Garrett’s presence alone has to help the Browns’ effort to keep Henry under 200 yards rushing, his game-changing potential in the pass rush could be the difference if Tannehill needs to pass more than his dropback average of 32.0 (counting sacks) per game. The Browns average 29.4 pass dropbacks per game. Garrett figures to line up most often against David Quessenberry, who is the third Titans player to start at left tackle because of injuries. Quessenberry was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in 2014. After extensive treatments, Quessenberry resumed his career with Houston in 2017. He moved to the Titans in 2018, spent two-plus years on their practice squad, and last week made his first start at left tackle.
Fourth down: Complementary football.
The Browns can’t expect to win this game on the heroics of Chubb or Garrett or Kareem Hunt alone. They’re going to need supreme efforts from all areas – offense, defense and special teams. While the Browns’ special teams have ceased from being a negative force in games, they have not been a difference-maker in any one game this year. “We are playing much better lately,” Stefanski said. “Guys have really stepped up in the second half of our season so far, I would say. We need our special teams to come through for us this week and for really every game.” Two of the Titans’ three losses have come in games in which they suffered special teams breakdowns.
Prediction: Titans 41, Browns 30.
My record: 7-4.