Browns chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta says GM Andrew Berry has the final call on a Browns' trade on draft day, but DePodesta's analytics will set the strategy. (usatoday.com0
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
If the Browns want to trade down from No. 10 on Thursday’s first round of the NFL draft, they may not lack for partners.
As we head into the homestretch of the draft process, possibly as many as five teams could be interested in moving into the Browns’ No. 10 spot. The targets vary and everything is fluid and dependent on how the draft unfolds over the top nine spots.
A new factor that could shake up the early portion of the first round emerged Friday when NFL Network reported that Louisville offensive tackle Mekhi Becton had a flagged drug test at the NFL Combine in February.
It means that Becton would enter the NFL in Stage One of the league’s intervention program, but under new CBA rules he could be released from the program in 60 days.
How it affects Becton’s draft status is uncertain. Becton reportedly has addressed the matter in Zoom conferences with teams.
Becton had no incidents of failed drug tests at Louisville, and athletic director Vince Tyra told ESPN.com, “He's just been a model student-athlete for us.”
One NFL team executive told TheLandOnDemand.com via text, “He is a good kid. That would not scare me.”
The Browns are one of many teams that have shown interest in Becton and have interviewed him on Zoom. According to at least two reports, they also have expressed interest in offensive tackle Ezra Cleveland of Boise State, who is not expected to be selected until after the first wave of tackles.
Cleveland could be a target of the Browns if they execute a trade-down strategy, depending on how far they elect to move down.
Below are five teams that may be interested in moving up.
The prices to move up are based on two trade value charts used by teams to guide draft-day trades. One is the chart created by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson in the 1990s. The other is an updated value chart devised by Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit.
Teams possibly looking to move up to the Browns’ No. 10 position
No. 12 Las Vegas Raiders
Target: One of the top three wide receivers.
Price to move up
Jimmy Johnson trade chart: 100 points. First- and fourth-round picks, Nos. 12 and 121.
Rich Hill trade chart: 22 points. First- and fourth-round picks, Nos. 12 and 121.
Analysis: The Raiders very easily can stand pat at No. 12 and expect to have one of the three top-rated receivers fall to them – Jerry Jeudy of Alabama, CeeDee Lamb of Oklahoma or Henry Ruggs of Alabama. But if they suspect the New York Jets might steal their guy at No. 11, they could be inclined to move up to No. 10 to assure they get the receiver of their choice.
Odds of a trade: Not good. It appears the Jets will use their No. 11 pick on an offensive tackle and select their receiver in the second round.
No. 14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Target: One of the top four offensive tackles.
Price to move up
Jimmy Johnson trade chart: 200 points. First- and third-round picks, Nos. 14 and 76.
Rich Hill trade chart: 44 points. First- and third-round picks, Nos. 14 and 76.
Analysis: If the Bucs want to see Tom Brady stay on the field for the two years of his $50 million contract, they will have to add a rookie offensive tackle good enough to start for them soon in his first season. They have a solid left tackle in Donovan Smith. Their right tackle currently is Joe Haeg, who made 35 starts in four years with the Indianapolis Colts and was signed to a one-year contract in free agency. It’s doubtful one of the four top tackles will fall to the Bucs at No. 14.
Odds of a trade: Fair. Depending on which tackle they like the most, the Bucs could set their sights ahead of the Browns and try to trade up with Carolina (No. 7) or Jacksonville (No. 9).
No. 15 Denver Broncos
Target: One of the top three receivers.
Price to move up
Jimmy Johnson trade chart: 250 points. First-, third- and fourth-round picks, Nos. 15, 77 and 118.
Rich Hill trade chart: 54 points. First- and third-round picks, Nos. 15 and 77.
Analysis: Although it’s a deep draft for receivers, rumors have heated up over the weekend that the Broncos covet Alabama’s Jeudy to pair with Courtland Sutton and give second-year quarterback Drew Locke another quality target. It’s possible a team can jump ahead of No. 10 to take Jeudy. Even so, the Broncos may be inclined to trade to No. 10 to assure themselves of Lamb or Ruggs.
Odds of a trade: Good. The Broncos are stocked with three third-round picks and one in the fourth round. That gives them the means to overpay if the Browns have another trade partner on the other line.
No. 16 Atlanta Falcons
Target: One of the top two cornerbacks, or one of the top two defensive tackles.
Price to move up
Jimmy Johnson trade chart: 300 points. First-, third-, and two fourth-round picks, Nos. 16, 78, 119 and 143.
Rich Hill chart: 64 points. First-, third- and seventh-round picks, Nos. 16, 78 and 228.
Analysis: The Falcons’ interest long has been to upgrade their defense with a top 10 talent. But it reportedly has gotten hotter in recent days as speculation has mounted that Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah could be sliding to the Browns at No. 10. Even if such talk is off base, C.J. Henderson of Florida definitely is on the Falcons’ radar. GM Thomas Dimitroff has never been shy about moving up for the player of his dreams. He gave up five picks, including a future No. 1, to move up from No. 27 to No. 6 and take Julio Jones in 2011. The team that accommodated him? The Browns.
Odds of a trade: Good. If the Browns’ end game is to leave the first night of the draft with Ezra Cleveland and extra picks, this trade realistically would net them the most.
No. 21 Philadelphia Eagles
Target: One of the top three receivers.
Price to move up
Jimmy Johnson trade chart: 500 points. First-, second-, third, and fourth-round picks, Nos. 21, 53, 103, 145.
Rich Hill trade chart: 108 points. First-, second- and sixth-round picks, Nos. 21, 53 and 190.
Analysis: The Eagles definitely want to select a wide receiver in the first round. And the connection with Browns GM Andrew Berry is real. He considers Eagles GM Howie Roseman a mentor after spending 2019 at his side. But the Eagles are too savvy to overpay for a receiver in a draft loaded with them in the first three rounds.
Odds of a trade: Slim and none. The Eagles are most likely content to stand pat and select the highest receiver on their board at No. 21.