Baker Mayfield meets former teammate Kyler Murray, who followed him as an Oklahoma Heisman winner and No. 1 overall draft pick. (247Sports.com)
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Editor’s note: Tony Grossi is an analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
PHOENIX
Four downs on Browns (6-7) v. Arizona Cardinals (3-9-1)
First down: Tangled emotions.
Baker Mayfield likes Kyler Murray, and surely wants to earn bragging rights over his friend and former teammate at Oklahoma. Mayfield doesn’t like Murray’s coach Kliff Kingsbury, and surely wants to avenge Kingsbury’s slights while both were young and ambitious at Texas Tech. All of that alone would make for nice theater in a meeting of the Browns and Cardinals. But there’s a more important factor at play here, of course, and that is winning to keep the Browns alive for the second and final AFC wild card. A lot has to happen over the final three weeks for the Browns to complete a steep climb out of the hole they dug for themselves. But it begins with running the table, winning their last three games, and finishing with a 9-7 record. Anything less than that and they will extend their non-playoff streak to a league-high 17 years in a row.
Second down: Different Heisman molds.
The measure of this unsatisfying Browns season can be found in inexplicable losses in Denver (24-19) and Pittsburgh (20-13). Yes, they were team losses, but on both occasions Mayfield failed to make as many plays as his far less-heralded quarterback counterparts, Brandon Allen of Denver and Devlin (Duck) Hodges of Pittsburgh. With Mayfield at the helm, the Browns’ offense failed at chances to win at the end. Now, with the season still hanging by a thread, Mayfield opposes Murray in a close-up battle of not only former teammates, but of back-to-back Heisman Trophy winners and No. 1 overall picks in the NFL draft. “I think our games are different,” Mayfield said. “Just his arm talent alone is very special. The things he is able to do when he throws the ball, it comes out different. When you see it in person, you will understand what I am talking about. Obviously, his speed is next level. He is very quick and you try tackling him in a phone booth. He is a tough guy to defend.” Murray, who is two inches shorter than Mayfield, has completed 64.1 percent of his passes for 3,060 yards, 16 touchdowns, nine interceptions and a passer rating of 86.9. He has been sacked an NFL-high 46 times. Mayfield has completed 59.2 percent for 3,109 yards, 15 touchdowns, 16 interceptions and a rating of 77.6. He has been sacked 33 times.
Third down: What will Freddie do?
Last week the Browns opposed the No. 32-ranked defense against the run, and they came out passing. Now they oppose the No. 32-ranked defense against the pass. So … ? Surely, the temptation to pass against the Cardinals will be great. They have given up the most passing yards and touchdown passes. Aside from pass rusher Chandler Jones, whose 14 sacks lead the NFL, and perhaps cornerback Patrick Peterson and safety Budda Baker, the Cardinals are bereft of playmakers on defense. Further, Freddie Kitchens will have Mayfield’s desire to shine against Kingsbury and Murray on top of his playsheet, as will be the organization-wide obsession to legitimize the Odell Beckham Jr. trade in the waning weeks of a lost season. But Kingsbury’s up-tempo offense seeks to tire a defense by keeping it on the field. Murray’s short-strike throws to pedestrian receivers extend drives, eat up game clock and make heavy-legged defenders vulnerable to Murray’s runs. Kingsbury does not run Murray like the Ravens run Lamar Jackson, but he does lead the Cardinals in rushing (448 yards, 5.8 average, four touchdowns). To help his own defense fight fatigue, Kitchens needs to feed Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to give his defense time off the field. If Kitchens gets wrapped up in an aerial show, it could be counter-productive.
Fourth down: Big day for Steve Wilks.
The desert represents the high point and low point of Wilks’ coaching career. The Cardinals gave him their head coaching job last year, and then made him one-and-done after a 3-13 season in which No. 1 pick Josh Rosen proved a draft bust. Wilks rebounded as Kitchens’ defensive coordinator. And this has proved almost as frustrating a year for Wilks as 2018 with Arizona. It started with a 43-13 thumping by Tennessee in the season and home opener, continued with a blowout loss in Santa Clara, CA, against the 49ers, and then came the mind-numbing defeats to Allen in Denver and Hodges in Pittsburgh. Now, without suspended pass rusher Myles Garrett to chase Murray, Wilks will try to defend the dynamic Murray in front of Michael Bidwill, the Cardinals owner who fired him, and send the Cardinals to their seventh loss in a row. Wilks declined to reveal his emotions during the week, but it’s hard to believe he wouldn’t consider this game his personal Super Bowl.
Prediction: Browns, 32-27.
My record: 8-5.