Odell Beckham Jr. and Baker Mayfield have worked hard to establish a chemistry to avoid the misfirings that have marked their 23 games together as teammates. There's no excuse for not getting on the same page this year. (Cleveland Browns)
My predictions for the 2021 Browns
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
After 25 years of desertion, expansion and dysfunction; of two ownership changes, 10 head coaches, 10 general managers and 30 starting quarterbacks; of myriad draft whiffs and free agent failings; of a quarterback burying beneath a gigantic American flag and a coach jumping into Lake Erie with his trunks slipping off, the Browns arrive at the 2021 season as a true Super Bowl contender.
They are a team loaded with character and characters, led by a boring coach whose most often barked four-letter expletives are “work” and “team.”
It’s been quite an expedition. The Titanic is all but raised. All that’s left is to drag it to SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on Feb. 13 and unfasten the chains. Fittingly, it’s the longest possible road to this season’s Super Bowl from Cleveland. Nothing is given.
Some might say it’s a “Super Bowl or bust” season for the Browns. Which is ridiculous considering the eternity it took to get to this point and the outlook ahead. The team has only seven players age 30 or older, and none older than 33. Its brightest stars are still ascending.
But in this era of analytics-driven salary cap decisions, it could be “Super Bowl or bust” for several players.
The Browns haven’t had a rookie quarterback reach his second contract in the salary cap era. When that happens with Baker Mayfield – this year or next year – the job of GM Andrew Berry to fit the pieces of his team’s salary puzzle together gets much tougher. Players considered vital parts of this team’s nucleus will be sacrificed to accommodate bigger salaries for Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Myles Garrett and others.
Thus, Berry has meticulously built the 2021 team with an urgent mix of players on the rise, players at their peaks and veterans on one-year prove-it contracts. Whether or not this Browns team reaches the Super Bowl in Los Angeles, it’s fair to say the quest will continue in 2022 with a team that will leave some familiar names behind.
Berry always has to look ahead. But the rest of us can limit our view to 2021. This is what I see:
1. The record will be: 12-5.
One more game on the schedule should equal one more win, right? What’s more important is getting one more win in AFC North division games.
The Browns have to go 4-2 against Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh to claim their first division title since 1989 and host a playoff game. Actually, 4-2 would give them breathing room to finish 11-6 overall, or possibly even 10-7.
Baltimore and Pittsburgh have the same schedule as the Browns with the exception of three games, which are tougher based on their higher-place standing last year. The differences: First-place Pittsburgh plays Buffalo, Tennessee and Seattle. Second-place Baltimore plays Miami, Indianapolis and the Rams. The Browns play New England, Houston and Arizona.
That seeming schedule advantage will be forsaken, however, if the Browns don’t take care of business in their division.
2. The season climax will be: the three weekends following Thanksgiving.
Another tremendous advantage for the Browns is the crucial stretch of Weeks 12-14. The Browns play at Baltimore on Sunday night, Nov. 28, then have their bye week, then host Baltimore on Dec. 12. Baltimore has its bye on Week 8, Oct. 31, however, and must play the Steelers in between the two meetings against the Browns. If the Browns don’t take advantage of this schedule quirk, the division could be lost.
3. The key to the offense will be: whether Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. find their missing chemistry.
The Browns proved last year they can be prolific offensively without Beckham. They have not proved they can be prolific with him.
On NBC’s broadcast of the Browns’ last preseason game in Atlanta, analyst Cris Collinsworth said he studied every pass play with Beckham on the field last year and termed it “a crock … just not true” that there was a chemistry problem between Beckham and Mayfield.
Collinsworth ignored the battery’s travails in last year’s Game 1 v. Baltimore and Game 6 v. Pittsburgh. In those two games, Beckham had five receptions on 14 targets for 47 yards. Then came the interception in Game 7 v. Cincinnati, followed by the accidental ACL tear while pursuing the interceptor.
After which -- in the very same game -- Mayfield turned into a different, more efficient quarterback.
Collinsworth bought the Browns’ company explanation that everything was new and evolving in the first half of the season and that Beckham would have naturally evolved into the offense just like everyone else had he not been injured.
So now Beckham has worked his way back from the ACL surgery and he’ll step into an offense that can challenge Kansas City, Buffalo, Green Bay and Dallas for the league’s top-scoring team.
There should be a grace period for Beckham to re-acclimate into the offense, of course. Give it four games. If things don’t look right in four games between Mayfield and Beckham, we’ll know the problem was real and not just a narrative.
4. The key to the defense will be: Jadeveon Clowney.
It’s probably unfair to single out anyone on this side of the ball. But if Clowney enjoys a rare healthy season and looks anything like the player that routinely beat the Browns’ quality offensive tackles in training camp, he would have an enormous impact on every facet of coordinator Joe Woods’ new-look defense.
Clowney’s impact would start with Myles Garrett, trickle into the linebacker group and extend all the way back to John Johnson, who is the rangy, play-making safety the Browns have severely lacked.
Much like Beckham on offense, the defense could survive, even flourish, if Clowney’s season is tripped up. But in order to have an elite defense, you need elite players. Clowney can still be that type of player. If so, this could be the best defensive team he’s been on.
5. The special teams will be: nerve-wracking in the early going.
Two high-profile roles will be filled at the start by unproven players – Chase McLaughlin at place-kicker and rookie Demetric Felton at kick and punt returner. The Browns have been searching for stability at those roles for five-plus years.
This team should be strong enough to overcome growing pains at these two positions. But it would be nice to feel confident about trying a 50-yard field goal to win a game, or getting a late big return in a close game, if necessary.
6. The breakout player on offense will be: receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones.
7. The breakout player on defense will be: cornerback Greg Newsome.
8. The first game in Kansas City will be: far more important than the typical season opener.
It’s the rematch of last season’s division round playoff loss, of course. It’s also an early measuring stick of the Browns’ intense investment in speed on defense.
Probably most important, even though it’s only Game 1 with 16 regular-season games to follow, it’s the only time to play the two-time defending AFC champions and prohibitive favorites to win it again – until the playoffs.
Fairly or not, it’s a potential tie-breaker for home-field advantage in the post-season if the teams somehow finish with the same record.
9. The Christmas Day game in Green Bay will be: wonderful TV viewing, but not nearly as important as the two that follow.
Yes, it’s another measuring stick of the relative strength of the Browns very late in the season and another chance to erase another historical footnote. Aaron Rodgers has never lost to three teams – the Browns (2-0), Jets (3-0) and Raiders (3-0). Each of the Browns’ rivals has won a game against the future Hall of Famer.
But any NFC game on the Browns’ schedule pales in significance to ones in their own division. After Green Bay, the Browns close out their 17-game schedule at Pittsburgh and home against Cincinnati. Those two games will have more meaning in determining the AFC North champion than the one against Green Bay.
10. The single biggest factor in going farther in the playoffs will be: health.
This certainly wasn’t true last year.
The Browns were banged up and ridden by COVID-19 when they smashed the Steelers in the AFC wild-card meeting in January. I would blow that off to just the last vestige of an unpredictable and unforeseeable strange season. Nothing that happened in the pandemic-marred 2021 season can be reasonably explained.
More than ever in this first 17-game regular season, the road to the Super Bowl will be a war of attrition. The best teams standing will be the healthiest.
As JC Tretter frequently states, the pandemic is not over. Positive COVID tests -- particularly with unvaccinated players, of which the Browns have a handful -- still can derail a team on any given week.
And for that reason, it’s impossible to predict how far the Browns will go this season.
The only thing of which I am sure is this will be the most fun Browns season since the 1980s. I would bank on that.