Watching intently, Kevin Stefanski said Baker Mayfield had 'a great week' of practice despite sore ribs and mounting criticism from external forces. (Cleveland Browns)
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Editor's note: Tony Grossi is a Cleveland Browns analyst for TheLandOnDemand.com and 850 ESPN Cleveland.
Four downs on Browns (4-2) v. Cincinnati Bengals (1-4-1)
First down: What’s different this time?
The last time the Browns played the Bengals in Week 2, they came off a humbling 38-6 loss to division rival Baltimore. Coach Kevin Stefanski’s message was: Don’t let one loss become two. They responded by turning one loss into four wins. Now they are coming off a humiliating 38-7 loss to division rival Pittsburgh. The theme of the week was the same: Don’t let one loss become two. But this feels different because of the descending play of quarterback Baker Mayfield. In his last six quarters against the Colts and Steelers, Mayfield is 12 of 27 (44.4 percent) for 138 yards. He has one touchdown and four interceptions, a 33.1 passer rating and sore ribs and chest. The offense has scored 10 points in that time. That stretch accentuated the fact the Browns’ run game and takeaway defense carried Mayfield to the finish line during the four wins. All of which has put Mayfield under siege from external sources – but not internally. “Obviously, we are going to ride with him, regardless,” Jarvis Landry said. “He is one of the toughest guys in the building. What he is dealing with, nobody is dealing with, and at the position that he is playing on the side it is, he had a tough week. He came out here and did the best that he could.” There are rays of hope. Mayfield had “a great week,” per Stefanski, preparing for a Bengals team against which Mayfield is 4-1 in his career with 12 touchdowns v. six interceptions.
Second down: The challenge of being Joe Burrow.
Cincinnati’s franchise quarterback hopeful ranks a notch ahead of Mayfield in overall passer rating (85.0 to 84.3), but widens that gap in categories such as fourth-quarter rating (87.1 to 27.8), third-quarter rating (70.7 to 46.4), completion percentage (65.0 to 60.6) and interception percentage (1.6 to 3.5). The most significant number is wins, of course, and Mayfield leads there, 4 to 1. Burrow doesn’t have the overall supporting team as a rookie that Mayfield has in his third year, and there is a decided difference in the way Bengals coach Zac Taylor runs his offense (62.2 percent pass dropbacks v. 37.8 percent runs) compared to Stefanski’s balanced attack (50.1 pass v. 49.9 run). Burrow’s 246 pass attempts lead the NFL, which is no prize. In fact, the top four quarterbacks in pass attempts (Burrow, Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew, Carson Wentz) play for teams with a total of five wins. Burrow threw 61 times in the Bengals’ 35-30 loss to the Browns in Game 2. That number could increase on Sunday. Burrow will be without top running back Joe Mixon, who is out with a foot injury.
Third down: War of attrition.
Mixon’s absence is the most notable difference in the Bengals from their first meeting. Another big loss for the Bengals is top cornerback William Jackson, whose interception of Mayfield led to a Bengals touchdown that closed a once-comfortable Browns lead to 28-23 with 5:55 to go in the fourth quarter. On the “plus” side, the Bengals have a more stabilized offensive line than in Game 2, have gently eased-in defensive tackle Geno Atkins from a back injury, and appear to have revived franchise-tagged receiver A.J. Green (8 catches for 96 yards on 11 targets v. the Colts). The Browns continue to be without franchise back Nick Chubb (knee) and mauler right guard Wyatt Teller (calf), and this week lost tight end Austin Hooper (emergency appendectomy). The Browns’ defense should be stronger due to the increased play time from previously injured cornerback Kevin Johnson, linebacker Mack Wilson and safety Ronnie Harrison.
Fourth down: Premature playoff calculations?
According to random analytics Websites, the Browns’ playoff chances with their current 4-2 record are 62 percent to 66 percent. (Their most likely first-round opponent would be the Buffalo Bills, according to playoffstatus.com.) We assume their playoff chances would surpass 70 percent by improving to 5-2. But there is no hint of playoff talk on the team. “I think that is a little ways away from us,” said guard Joel Bitonio. “We are really just trying to focus on Cincinnati, but [4-2] is a good start. The two losses we had, we did not perform up to expectations. I think that is tough and I think that makes those losses feel worse, but as a group, we have won a few games and we are trying to move on and trying to get to 5-2 this week, which will be big. It is good to be in position. You never want to be like, ‘Man, they are out of the playoffs already. They are 0-6.’ That is not what you want to hear. We are 4-2, and we know we have things that we want to improve on and work on and that it is a day-to-day, week-to-week business.” Those sentiments differ from Mayfield’s “4-2 never felt so much like 0-6.” A final thought from Odell Beckham Jr.: “We are 4-2. We are in a good place. I think it is just about finding confidence within the people within this building because I do not think people expected us to be 4-2 anyways.”
Prediction: Browns 31, Bengals 27
My record: 5-1.